U.S. Federal Debt Growth and Gold Price While the increase in U.S. federal debt has traditionally correlated with higher gold prices, multiple other factors significantly influence gold’s market value. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Money Market Fund Assets and Fed Funds Rate The current environment suggests that a substantial amount of capital is poised to flow back into equity markets, driven by expectations of favorable economic conditions and monetary policy adjustments. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global Equities Around Fed Cut With And Without Recession Global equities typically show strong performance following the Fed’s first rate cut, when the economy avoids a recession during the next 12 months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Labor Market – Nonfarm Payrolls Growth in the Month That the Fed Starts Easing Policy The recent rise in payroll numbers is surprising given the Fed’s easing of interest rates. Usually, strong job growth coincides with tighter monetary policy, but the current situation reveals a notable divergence. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Money Market Fund Assets vs. Federal Funds Effective Rate U.S. money market funds are sensitive to changes in interest rates, and historical trends indicate that they often experience outflows approximately 12 months after an initial Fed rate cut. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Pre and Post Fed Rate Cuts The performance of the S&P 500 following the Fed’s first rate cut has historically been robust, but this trend is closely tied to the state of the U.S. economy, particularly regarding the risk of recession. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Index and Fed Funds Effective Rate While Fed rate cuts typically provide a short-term boost to market sentiment, historical trends suggest they often coincide with economic slowdowns. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Recessions – 6-Month Fed Funds Minus Current Fed Funds Rate Historically, U.S. recessions have often followed periods of bearish short-term interest rates, particularly when the Fed cuts rates in response to economic downturns or signs of slowing growth. Image: BofA Research Investment Committee
Market Pricing of Fed Rate Cuts BofA expects the Fed to cut another 75bp this year, consistent with market pricing, particularly in light of recent economic conditions and the Fed’s recent decision to cut rates by 50bp. Image: BofA Global Research
Number of Trading Days Since Last Fed Rate Cut The Fed’s recent decision to cut interest rates for the first time in four years, in response to changing economic conditions, marks the second-longest wait for such a reduction in history. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Fed Rate Cuts Goldman Sachs forecasts a series of 25bp interest rate cuts through mid-2025, aimed at supporting economic growth amid fluctuating inflation rates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research