Trade War Hitting Global Trade Hard

Trade War Hitting Global Trade Hard US-China trade war is hurting Asia export hubs. Singapore is heading for a recession. Picture source: Deutsche Bank Global Research

Semiconductor Sales vs. Global Trade (volume)

Semiconductor Sales vs. Global Trade (volume) Interesting chart showing the correlation of 0.78 between semiconductor sales and global trade (volume). Picture source: Paolo Cardena

DHL Global Trade Barometer

DHL Global Trade Barometer The DHL Global Trade Barometer is a leading indicator for the future development of global trade. It declines by -8 points to 48, predicting a deceleration in global trade growth. You may also like “Recession Indicators.” Picture source: Deutsche Post DHL Group

BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator for Global Trade Tensions

BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator for Global Trade Tensions The recent decline of the indicator suggests that investors may be more complacent about the risk and impact of trade conflicts. Source: BlackRock Investment Institute – Global Investment Outlook Q2 2019

$11 Trillion Bonds Globally Trade At Negative Interest Rates

$11 Trillion Bonds Globally Trade At Negative Interest Rates The total amount of negative interest rates climbed to USD 11 trillion. Investors are paying governments for the privilege of holding their bonds and are losing so much money in real terms. Picture source: Deutsche Bank Global Research

Trade War and Financial Conditions Index

Trade War and Financial Conditions Index The trade war has tightened the Goldman Sachs FCI by about 60bp cumulatively. The Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index (FCI) is a weighted sum of a long-term corporate yield, a short-term bond yield, the exchange rate, and a stock market variable. Picture source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Effect of the Trade War on U.S. Real GDP Growth

Effect of the Trade War on U.S. Real GDP Growth Assuming no futher escalation, the trade war drag on U.S. growth is expected to peak at about -0.4% in the second half of 2019. Picture source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Household Debt and World Trade

U.S. Household Debt and World Trade This chart shows the pretty good correlation between U.S. household debt and world trade. Picture source: Oxford Economics, Macrobond