U.S. NIPA Profit Margins and Recessions Chart showing the longest margin contraction in post-war history, for nearly 5 years. Image: Oxford Economics

Profit Margins of S&P Large Caps and Small Caps Profit margins between small and large caps are widening. Industries with highest concentrations are getting all of the profit margin improvement. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

S&P 500 Adjusted Net Profit Margin and Info Tech Margins Info Tech margins are twice as high as S&P 500 margins. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Corporate Profit Margin and Recession The chart shows a U.S. corporate profit margin proxy. If it declines below 10% in this business cycle (red line), it could suggest a coming recession.

Increased Productivity Boosts Profits Margins When a company increases productivity, it makes more products without increasing costs. Higher productivity can improve the company’s profit margin and total profits. During this business cycle, productivity has increased at an average rate of 1.3% year-over-year. But productivity has been cut in half since the previous business cycle. You…

S&P 500 Operating Earnings and NIPA Corporate Profits Goldman Sachs expects S&P 500 margins to rise slightly in 2020. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Global Nominal GDP and Corporate Profits This chart shows the correlation and the slowdown in global growth and corporate profits. Historically, margin pressures have preceded the start of recessions. Image: J.P. Morgan

S&P 500 Industrials Index and U.S. Manufacturing Unit Labor Costs When U.S. labor costs rise, industrial profit margins are under pressure. Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC