Share of Russell 3000 Firms Discussing Layoffs During Quarterly Earnings Calls You won’t hear much about layoffs on earnings calls these days, a hint that management still sees blue skies for growth. Talk of job cuts usually comes when profit margins start to thin. For now, steady headcount says it all. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
Top Five Companies % of S&P 500 Market Capitalization The S&P 500 is experiencing unprecedented levels of concentration. While the concentration presents potential risks, the fundamentals of the top 5 companies remain strong, with elevated profit margins and robust cash flow generation. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Aggregate EPS Surprise Corporate America has once again demonstrated its ability to sustain profit margins, with a strong Q4 2024 earnings season surpassing expectations by a significant margin. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
S&P 500 Earnings Estimates The Magnificent Five are positioned for strong earnings growth through 2025, driven by superior sales growth, robust profit margins, and reasonable valuations relative to their growth potential. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Inflation – Single Most Important Problem Facing Small Business Owners Inflation is supposed to reduce profit margins. Image: BCA Research
Valuation – S&P 500 Operating Earnings Per Share If companies are able to maintain their profit margins, the forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 could fall to 20.1x by 4Q22. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
S&P 500 Sectors’ Relative Performance Sensitivity to Real Rates Can higher rates boost financials by increasing profit margins? Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
S&P 500 Sectors’ Relative Performance Sensitivity to Real Rates Financials benefit from higher rates, as profit margins expand. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 Industrials Index and U.S. Manufacturing Unit Labor Costs When U.S. labor costs rise, industrial profit margins are under pressure. Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC
S&P 500 Cyclically-Adjusted P/E Ratio (CAPE) vs. S&P 500 Return on Equity (ROE) Record profitability is helping justify elevated S&P 500 valuations, with trailing four-quarter ROE at 22%, a historic high. But if margins come under pressure and ROE slips, that support could quickly weaken. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Top 5 vs. S&P 500 ex-Top 5 – YoY Contribution of EPS and P/E to Returns The performance gap could widen further, as the top 5 largest stocks in the S&P 500 are superior on almost every financial metric (revenue, profit growth, margin structure, volatility and corporate leverage). Image: Credit Suisse Research