University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – Current Conditions Index This index has been negative year-over-year for 8 consecutive months. This is rare outside of recession. Picture source: Pictet Asset Management
U.S. Consumer Sentiment The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is more sensitive to financial markets, whereas the Conference Board Index reflects labor market conditions. Picture source: J.P. Morgan
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Leads U.S. Unemployment Rate This interesting chart suggests that the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index leads the U.S. unemployment rate by 7 months (R = 0.95). Picture source: Paolo Cardena
U.S. Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment Currently, the consumer is doing well, keeping the U.S. economy from tanking, and consumer sentiment is high. Picture source: Credit Suisse
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index vs. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index History tells us that before a recession, the consumer confidence vs. sentiment spread always peaks and then declines. Picture source: Crescat Capital LLC
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – Democrats vs. Republicans This chart shows that Democrats and Republicans have a completely different view of the U.S. economy. Democrats see a recession coming and Republicans see economic growth. Picture source: John Kemp
Home Builder Sentiment Leads Consumer Spending Interesting chart suggesting that the NAHB housing market index leads the change in consumer spending. The latest reading for July suggests that the outlook for the U.S. economy is expected to slow. Picture source: Dr Thomas Kevin Swift
The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Sentiment Index Hit a 15-Year High Last time, it hit this level was in May 1997 and January 2004. That’s good news, because this level suggests that there is no imminent recession on the horizon.
Consumer Confidence Spread and U.S. Jobless Claims Interesting chart showing a good correlation between the consumer confidence spread and jobless claims. As a reminder, the consumer confidence vs. sentiment spread always peaks and then declines before a recession. You may also like “Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index vs. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.” Picture source:…
