University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – Current Conditions Index This index has been negative year-over-year for 8 consecutive months. This is rare outside of recession. Image: Pictet Asset Management
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Leads U.S. Unemployment Rate This interesting chart suggests that the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index leads the U.S. unemployment rate by 7 months (R = 0.95). Image: Paolo Cardena
U.S. Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment Currently, the consumer is doing well, keeping the U.S. economy from tanking, and consumer sentiment is high. Image: Credit Suisse
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index vs. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index History tells us that before a recession, the consumer confidence vs. sentiment spread always peaks and then declines. Image: Crescat Capital LLC
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – Democrats vs. Republicans This chart shows that Democrats and Republicans have a completely different view of the U.S. economy. Democrats see a recession coming and Republicans see economic growth. Image: John Kemp
Home Builder Sentiment Leads Consumer Spending Interesting chart suggesting that the NAHB housing market index leads the change in consumer spending. The latest reading for July suggests that the outlook for the U.S. economy is expected to slow. Image: Dr Thomas Kevin Swift
The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Sentiment Index Hit a 15-Year High Last time, it hit this level was in May 1997 and January 2004. That’s good news, because this level suggests that there is no imminent recession on the horizon.
Large Cap Consumer Staples Positioning Positioning in large-cap consumer staples sits in the 13th percentile, with investors heavily underweight. Even a small lift in sentiment could be enough to spark a bounce. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
University of Michigan Survey – Consumer Who Expect Higher Unemployment over the Next 12 Months The latest University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers indicate that a significantly higher share of Americans now expect unemployment to rise over the next year, reaching the highest level since 2009. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Consumer Confidence Composite and S&P 500 While the U.S. stock market has experienced a remarkable rally, consumer confidence has waned since 2019, underscoring a disconnect between financial market performance and broader economic sentiment. Image: Real Investment Advice
Z-Score of Sentiment Score by S&P 500 Sector Consumer staples stocks are out of favor among investors. Is it time for buyers to start looking? Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy