% of Large-Cap Mutual Funds Outperforming their Benchmarks Active large-cap funds are enjoying an early win, with 57% topping their benchmarks so far this year, well above the average of 37%. But if history is any guide, keeping that edge will be tough. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Tax Refunds and U.S. Equity Fund Flows U.S. equity fund inflows tend to pick up sharply during tax refund season. History suggests the next few weeks could see another wave of cash hitting the market. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Fed Funds Rate and Fed Funds Futures Lower tariff rates and a dovish shift at the Fed could set the stage for rate cuts below 3.5% by year‑end, assuming inflation keeps drifting toward target and growth stays soft. Image: Deutsche Bank
Equity Net Long Positioning – Leveraged Funds and Asset Managers Net Future Positions Leveraged funds and asset managers aren’t back to their peak long bets in U.S. stock futures, and with growth resilient, easier policy, and profits steady, the rally might still have legs. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Median Monthly Flow into Equity Mutual Funds and ETFs as a % of Total AUM Equity flows usually pick up in the new year amid the “January effect,” when investors return with renewed confidence and reposition their portfolios. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Percentage of U.S. Large-Cap Equity Mutual Funds Beating the S&P 500 In 2025, only a small minority of large‑cap active equity funds kept pace with the S&P 500. Managers who underweighted the “Magnificent Seven” were punished as the market’s leadership grew even more concentrated. Image: Bloomberg
Fed Funds Rate – Target Probabilities at the Fed’s FOMC Meeting Traders aren’t betting heavily on a Fed rate cut at the January 28, 2026 FOMC meeting, with markets pricing in just an 18.8% chance of a 25 bps reduction. Image: CME Group
Rolling 9-Week Flows into U.S. Equity ETFs and Mutual Funds Investors keep buying the dip, pouring nearly $100 billion into U.S. equity mutual funds and ETFs over the past nine weeks, convinced the bull market still has room to run. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 and Fed Funds Target Rate When the Fed cuts rates outside of a recession, U.S. stocks typically perform well. However, a perceived “too dovish” cut, signaling excessive economic worry, could disrupt the ongoing year-end stock rally. Image: Bloomberg
Fed Funds Rate – 2026 Year-End Rate Levels Expectations Deutsche Bank’s latest poll of 40 global market participants shows expectations for the fed funds rate at end-2026 anchored near 3.2%, regardless of whether Powell keeps rates unchanged or opts for a 25-basis-point cut today. Image: Deutsche Bank
Fed Funds Rate and 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield The S&P 500’s record-breaking rally shows no signs of cooling, with market participants now positioning for another Fed rate cut on October 29 to fuel the next leg higher. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research