Fed Funds Rate and Fed Funds Futures Deutsche Bank expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 bps at the December 2025, January 2026, and March 2026 meetings, bringing the Fed funds rate to a 3.5–3.75% range, aligning with their neutral rate projection. Image: Deutsche Bank
Aggregate Financial Asset Allocation Among Households, Mutual Funds, Pension Funds, and Foreign Investors With investor allocation to equities at an all-time high, the market faces increased vulnerability to volatility and substantial losses, especially in the event of a downturn. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Fed Funds Rate – Target Probabilities at the Fed’s FOMC Meeting Traders currently see a 39.8% probability of a 25-bps rate cut at the FOMC meeting on May 7, 2025. Image: CME Group
Federal Funds Rate and ECB Deposit Rate Unlike the recent past, when inflation was high and interest rates were near zero, the Fed and ECB now have greater flexibility to cut rates if economic conditions worsen. Image: Deutsche Bank
Market-Implied Fed Funds Rate and 2-Year U.S. Inflation Swap Current market pricing of Fed rate cuts indicates a pivot from inflation worries to growth concerns, suggesting investors expect the Fed to prioritize economic stability over aggressive inflation control. Image: Deutsche Bank
% of Large-Cap Mutual Funds Outperforming their Benchmarks With 51% of large-cap mutual funds beating their benchmarks year-to-date, surpassing the long-term average, it’s a positive sign. However, historically, most active funds have struggled to consistently beat their benchmarks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Equity Net Long Positioning – Leveraged Funds and Asset Managers Net Future Positions Leveraged funds and asset managers continue to maintain significant net long positions in U.S. equity futures, despite showing some reduced bullishness. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Fed Funds Rate Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to implement two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2025, with an additional cut projected for 2026. How will the Fed navigate potential increases in trade tariffs under the Trump administration? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Fed Funds Futures Markets are still pricing in Fed rate cuts for 2025, but expectations have been scaled back due to persistent inflation concerns. Image: Deutsche Bank
Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index and USD Bets Leveraged Funds Investors, particularly hedge funds, are showing a strong bullish sentiment towards the U.S. dollar, with positioning now at its highest level since January 2019, while Goldman’s strategists anticipate potential further dollar strength. Image: Bloomberg
Median Monthly Flow into Equity Mutual Funds and ETFs as a % of Total AUM January has historically seen increased investor activity in equity markets, resulting in strong inflows, as the start of a new year often inspires renewed investment strategies and goals. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research