U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls vs. U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls vs. U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI The U.S. ISM manufacturing index reading below 50 signals a contraction in manufacturing activity, which may impact payroll numbers. However, the relationship between the index and actual payroll figures is not straightforward. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index

ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index This chart shows the correlation between the ISM manufacturing index and the S&P 500 index year-over-year percent change, since 2011. The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index in September stands at 47.2%, below the consensus forecast of 47.5%, which is indicative of a contraction in the manufacturing sector. Click the…

S&P 500 vs. ISM Composite PMI

S&P 500 vs. ISM Composite PMI The divergence between the U.S. ISM Composite PMI and the S&P 500 has become increasingly notable, reflecting contrasting signals about the health of the U.S. economy. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Easing rate pressure is projected to facilitate a recovery in U.S. manufacturing as financial conditions improve, inflation declines, and both domestic and foreign demand strengthen. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy

ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM New Orders – Inventories

ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM New Orders – Inventories The spread between U.S. ISM New Orders and Inventories suggests a positive upward trend in the ISM manufacturing PMI, with new orders increasing at a more rapid pace than inventories. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and Recessions

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and Recessions The U.S. manufacturing sector is currently experiencing its second longest downturn in modern history, attributed to various factors, including elevated interest rates that have suppressed demand. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy

ISM Manufacturing PMI and U.S. Recessions

ISM Manufacturing PMI and U.S. Recessions A drop in the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI below 45 signals significantly heightened recession risks, indicating a severe contraction in the manufacturing sector. Image: BofA Global Research

ISM Manufacturing PMI and Global Stocks vs. Government Bonds

ISM Manufacturing PMI and Global Stocks vs. Government Bonds In a potential shift from a “no” to a “hard” landing scenario, government bonds may outperform due to increased risk aversion, interest rate cuts, lower inflation expectations, and their historical performance during economic downturns. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

U.S. ISM Manufacturing and Services Survey Data

U.S. ISM Manufacturing and Services Survey Data A “soft recession” occurs when the manufacturing side of the U.S. economy contracts while services remain robust, leading to a period of slower economic activity. Image: Real Investment Advice

Sentiment – NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

Sentiment – NFIB Small Business Optimism Index High interest rates and inflation have dampened small businesses’ optimism. However, the anticipation of rate cuts and economic improvements may boost sentiment going forward. Image: BofA Global Research