ISM Manufacturing PMI and Global Stocks vs. Government Bonds

ISM Manufacturing PMI and Global Stocks vs. Government Bonds In a potential shift from a “no” to a “hard” landing scenario, government bonds may outperform due to increased risk aversion, interest rate cuts, lower inflation expectations, and their historical performance during economic downturns. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

U.S. ISM Manufacturing and Services Survey Data

U.S. ISM Manufacturing and Services Survey Data A “soft recession” occurs when the manufacturing side of the U.S. economy contracts while services remain robust, leading to a period of slower economic activity. Image: Real Investment Advice

ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM New Orders – Inventories

ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM New Orders – Inventories The spread between U.S. ISM New Orders and Inventories does not suggest a promising upward trend in the ISM manufacturing PMI, as new orders are decreasing at a faster pace than inventories. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index

ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index This chart shows the correlation between the ISM manufacturing index and the S&P 500 index year-over-year percent change, since 2011. The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index in May stands at 48.7%, below the consensus forecast of 49.5%, which is indicative of a contraction in the manufacturing sector. Click the…

Sentiment – NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

Sentiment – NFIB Small Business Optimism Index High interest rates and inflation have dampened small businesses’ optimism. However, the anticipation of rate cuts and economic improvements may boost sentiment going forward. Image: BofA Global Research

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI vs. S&P 500 EPS Growth

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI vs. S&P 500 EPS Growth A rise in the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI is suggesting positive growth in 1Q EPS, with expectations of outperforming the initial projections. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. GDP Growth

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. GDP Growth The large gap that currently exists between the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. real GDP will eventually close, as economic indicators tend to align over time. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls vs. U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls vs. U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI A reading below 50 on the ISM manufacturing index indicates a contraction in manufacturing activity, potentially affecting payrolls. However, the relationship between the index and actual payrolls is not straightforward. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy