ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index in March stands at 49.0%, below the consensus forecast of 49.5%, which is indicative of a contraction in the manufacturing sector. This chart shows the correlation between the U.S. ISM manufacturing index and the S&P 500 index year-over-year percent change, since 2011. Click…
ISM Composite Index vs. Recessions While indicating slower growth, the economically weighted ISM composite index still points to expansionary conditions in the U.S. economy, without signaling an impending recession. Image: Real Investment Advice
Survey – What Is the Biggest Risk to the U.S. Exceptionalism Theme? While the U.S. economy has shown resilience, a recent survey highlights sticky inflation as the biggest risk to U.S. exceptionalism. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index vs. U.S. CPI Inflation (Leading Indicator) The U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index typically leads U.S. CPI inflation by three months, suggesting that changes in the index may predict future CPI trends. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 EPS Annual % Change With the ISM Manufacturing Index still in contraction territory and strongly correlated with S&P 500 earnings growth, questions arise about the resilience of corporate earnings in 2025. Image: Real Investment Advice
Sentiment – NFIB Small Business Optimism Index In November, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased by 8 points to 101.7, driven by the recent election results, potentially boosting employment, investment, and economic activity. Image: J.P. Morgan
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives ex. Commodities and ISM Manufacturing Index U.S. equity sector rotations are pricing in a “no landing” economic scenario, where the U.S. economy avoids both recession and significant slowdown, maintaining steady growth instead. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Sentiment – NFIB Small Business Optimism Index The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased by 2.2 points in October, reaching a level of 93.7. This rise in optimism among small business owners is a step in the right direction. Image: The Daily Shot
U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls vs. U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI The U.S. ISM manufacturing index reading below 50 signals a contraction in manufacturing activity, which may impact payroll numbers. However, the relationship between the index and actual payroll figures is not straightforward. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
S&P 500 vs. ISM Composite PMI The divergence between the U.S. ISM Composite PMI and the S&P 500 has become increasingly notable, reflecting contrasting signals about the health of the U.S. economy. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Easing rate pressure is projected to facilitate a recovery in U.S. manufacturing as financial conditions improve, inflation declines, and both domestic and foreign demand strengthen. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy