ISM Manufacturing Index and ISM Prices Paid Index (Leading Indicator) The ISM Prices Paid Index tends to lead the ISM Manufacturing Index by 12 months, suggesting a fall of the ISM Manufacturing Index in 1H22. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index This chart shows the correlation between the ISM manufacturing index and the S&P 500 index year-over-year percent change, since 2011. The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index declined to 58.7% in December. Click the Image to Enlarge
ISM YoY and U.S. 2+10-Year Bond Yield YoY (Leading Indicator) The U.S. 2+10-year bond yield YoY (inverted) tends to lead the ISM YoY by 18 months, suggesting that the growth momentum is expected to fade through H1 2022. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Risk Appetite Indicator and U.S. ISM Manufacturing The risk appetite indicator is below zero, as investors expect growth to slowdown. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
SOX Semiconductor Index vs. ISM New Orders The SOX Semiconductor Index tends to track the ISM New Orders Index closely. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Aggregated U.S. Equity Futures Positions vs. ISM Manufacturing The correlation between aggregated U.S. equity futures positions and ISM manufacturing remains quite strong. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. ISM Manufacturing vs. Philadelphia Fed Leading-Lagging Parts – Leading Indicator Philadelphia Fed leading vs. lagging variables tend to lead U.S. ISM Manufacturing by 10 months. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
ISM and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yields The ISM has a strong relationship with U.S. 10-year yields. If economic growth continues to slow, could investors expect lower yields in the coming months? Image: Real Investment Advice
ISM New Orders Index and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield (Leading Indicator) The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield (24-month change) tends lead ISM new orders by 18 months. Image: Trahan Macro Research
Copper YoY Change vs. ISM New Orders YoY Change ISM new orders trends point to a decline in copper prices. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy