ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index U.S. factory activity jumped back to life in January, with the ISM Manufacturing Index hitting 52.6 and easily topping forecasts for 48.5. The chart shows the correlation between the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and the S&P 500 index year-over-year percent change, since 2011. Click the Image to Enlarge
Inflation – U.S. ISM Services Prices vs. Super Core PCE History shows the U.S. ISM Services Prices Index tends to lead super core inflation by five months, which means sticky prices aren’t going anywhere soon. Image: Deutsche Bank
ISM Composite Index vs. Recessions The economically weighted ISM composite paints a picture of moderation. Growth has cooled, not cracked. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index vs. U.S. CPI Inflation (Leading Indicator) The U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index typically leads U.S. CPI inflation by three months, indicating that changes in the index can help predict future CPI trends. Image: Deutsche Bank
Copper to Gold Ratio vs. U.S. ISM Manufacturing A falling copper/gold ratio points to slower U.S. economic growth, reflecting investor caution toward the near-term economic environment. Image: Bloomberg
Sentiment – GS Business Optimism Tracker U.S. business optimism has seen a significant and widespread decline in early 2025, as multiple indicators and surveys report sharp drops in sentiment among CEOs, CFOs, and small business owners. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Survey – What Is the Biggest Risk to the U.S. Exceptionalism Theme? While the U.S. economy has shown resilience, a recent survey highlights sticky inflation as the biggest risk to U.S. exceptionalism. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 EPS Annual % Change With the ISM Manufacturing Index still in contraction territory and strongly correlated with S&P 500 earnings growth, questions arise about the resilience of corporate earnings in 2025. Image: Real Investment Advice
Sentiment – NFIB Small Business Optimism Index In November, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased by 8 points to 101.7, driven by the recent election results, potentially boosting employment, investment, and economic activity. Image: J.P. Morgan
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives ex. Commodities and ISM Manufacturing Index U.S. equity sector rotations are pricing in a “no landing” economic scenario, where the U.S. economy avoids both recession and significant slowdown, maintaining steady growth instead. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls vs. U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI The U.S. ISM manufacturing index reading below 50 signals a contraction in manufacturing activity, which may impact payroll numbers. However, the relationship between the index and actual payroll figures is not straightforward. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy