Search Results for: ISM

ISM Manufacturing Index and Recessions Economic growth tends to peak about a year after the recession ends. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Ratio to 12-Month Moving Average Historically, the S&P 500 tends to pull back as economic growth peaks. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

ISM Manufacturing Index and ISM Prices Paid Index (Leading Indicator) The ISM Prices Paid Index tends to lead the ISM Manufacturing Index by 12 months, suggesting a mid-cycle shift this year. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index This chart shows the correlation between the ISM manufacturing index and the S&P 500 index year-over-year percent change, since 2011. U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index rose to 64.7% in March. Click the Image to Enlarge

Average Forward S&P 500 Return Conditional on ISM Manufacturing Index at Time of Investment When the ISM is above 60, like today, the return on the S&P 500 tends to be negative over the next 3 and 6 months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

ISM YoY and U.S. 2+10-Year Bond Yield YoY (Leading Indicator) The U.S. 2+10-year bond yield YoY (inverted) tends to lead the ISM YoY by 18 months, suggesting that the growth momentum is expected to continue until August 2021. Image: Nordea and Macrobond

Discretionary Investors Equity Positioning and ISM Manufacturing Will discretionary equity positioning peak in 2Q21? Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Core CPI (Core Inflation Leading Indicator) U.S. annual core CPI at 1.3% in February. The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index tends to lead U.S. Core CPI by 24 months. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index” and “U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months.“…

Aggregated U.S. Equity Futures Positions vs. ISM Manufacturing There is a slight divergence between aggregated U.S. equity futures positions and ISM manufacturing. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Commodity, ISM Prices and Core PCE Price Index (Inflation) Commodities and manufactured goods tend to lead core inflation. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management