ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index U.S. manufacturing continued to gain traction in May, with the ISM Manufacturing Index rising to 54, above expectations of 53.1, and marking a fifth straight month of expansion. Momentum across the industrial sector is firming. The chart shows the correlation between the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and the…
U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index vs. U.S. CPI Inflation (Leading Indicator) The ISM Services Prices Paid Index typically leads U.S. CPI by about three months, offering an early read on where inflation is heading. It has now surged to its highest since 2022. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 EPS Annual % Change With the ISM Manufacturing Index and S&P 500 earnings growth moving hand in hand, either ISM climbs into the high 50s as the cycle heats up, or earnings estimates reset lower. At this point in the cycle, the revisions tend to come first. Image:…
Valuations – S&P 500 P/E vs. U.S. ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid (Leading Indicator) When manufacturing costs climb, equities usually feel it later. Higher input prices work their way into the S&P 500’s P/E ratio with a lag, showing up in valuations roughly a year down the road. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. ISM Manufacturing and Services Survey Data Economists call it a “soft recession” when factories slow but services keep humming. That resilience on the services side is what kept the U.S. out of a recession. But if services begin to crack, things could shift quickly. Image: Real Investment Advice
Inflation – U.S. ISM Services Prices vs. Super Core PCE History shows the U.S. ISM Services Prices Index tends to lead super core inflation by five months, which means sticky prices aren’t going anywhere soon. Image: Deutsche Bank
ISM Composite Index vs. Recessions The economically weighted ISM composite paints a picture of moderation. Growth has cooled, not cracked. Image: Real Investment Advice
Copper to Gold Ratio vs. U.S. ISM Manufacturing A falling copper/gold ratio points to slower U.S. economic growth, reflecting investor caution toward the near-term economic environment. Image: Bloomberg
Sentiment – GS Business Optimism Tracker U.S. business optimism has seen a significant and widespread decline in early 2025, as multiple indicators and surveys report sharp drops in sentiment among CEOs, CFOs, and small business owners. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Survey – What Is the Biggest Risk to the U.S. Exceptionalism Theme? While the U.S. economy has shown resilience, a recent survey highlights sticky inflation as the biggest risk to U.S. exceptionalism. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Sentiment – NFIB Small Business Optimism Index In November, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased by 8 points to 101.7, driven by the recent election results, potentially boosting employment, investment, and economic activity. Image: J.P. Morgan