U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Core CPI (Core Inflation Leading Indicator) U.S. annual core CPI at 1.6% in December. The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index tends to lead U.S. Core CPI by 24 months. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index” and “U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months.“…
Inflation – U.S. Consumer Price Index and ISM Manufacturing Prices Index (Leading Indicator) ISM manufacturing prices tend to lead headline inflation. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
ISM PMI and S&P 500 Revenues per Share (Leading Indicator) The ISM PMI tends to lead S&P 500 revenues. Image: Yardeni Research
S&P 500 Before and After ISM Hits 60 Historically, a 60 reading on the ISM is not very bullish for the S&P 500. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
ISM Manufacturing Index and SOX Philadelphia Semiconductor Index Chart showing the good correlation between the ISM Manufacturing Index and the performance of the SOX Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index This chart shows the correlation between the ISM manufacturing index and the S&P 500 index year-over-year percent change, since 2011. U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index increased to 60.7% in December. Click the Image to Enlarge
S&P 500 Performance from Different ISM Starting Points When the ISM is between 55 and 60, the S&P 500 tends to underperform its long-term average over the next 3, 6 and 12 months. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
S&P 500 Financials Index/S&P 500 Index and ISM Manufacturing PMI The ISM Manufacturing PMI suggests that the financials’ rally should continue. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
ISM YoY and U.S. 2+10-Year Bond Yield YoY (Leading Indicator) The U.S. 2+10-year bond yield YoY (inverted) tends to lead the ISM YoY by 18 months, suggesting that the growth momentum is expected to continue over the next 2-3 quarters. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Historical Probability of S&P 500 6M Realised Volatility Above 18% and ISM Historically, high-volatility regimes are unlikely with high levels of ISM. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research