U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and Cyclicals EPS Revision

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and Cyclicals EPS Revision This chart shows the correlation between the ISM Manufacturing Index and cyclicals EPS revision, suggesting that 4Q19 will see a reset, with capital goods pricing in an actual earnings recession. Picture source: Morgan Stanley Research

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Core CPI (Leading Indicator)

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Core CPI (Leading Indicator) Annual core CPI in September remained steady at 2.4% . This chart suggests that the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index leads U.S. Core CPI by 24 months. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index” and “U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months.“…

U.S. ISM Composite Index and U.S. Real GDP

U.S. ISM Composite Index and U.S. Real GDP This chart shows the good correlation between the ISM Composite Index (services + manufacturing) and U.S. real GDP. What about U.S. GDP growth in 2020? Picture source: Deutsche Bank Global Research

U.S. ISM Recession Probability

U.S. ISM Recession Probability Chart showing that historically, a level greater than 44.5% has indicated a recession. Current U.S. ISM levels indicate a recession probability of 23%. Picture source: Pictet Asset Management

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and Cyclical Stocks

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and Cyclical Stocks Great chart showing that cyclical stocks suggest an economic slowdown rather than an imminent recession. Picture source: Leuthold Group

U.S. ISM PMI Composite Index and U.S. Real GDP

U.S. ISM PMI Composite Index and U.S. Real GDP Chart showing the correlation between the U.S. ISM PMI Composite Index and U.S. real GDP. The service sector is still expanding. Picture source: Oxford Economics