Yield Curve 10Y-2Y and U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Chart suggesting that the 10Y-2Y spread (YoY) leads the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (YoY) by 18 months. U.S. PMI could bounce back in 2020. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Core CPI (Core Inflation Leading Indicator) US annual core CPI in November stayed unchanged at 2.3%. This chart suggests that the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index leads U.S. Core CPI by 24 months. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index” and “U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over…
U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (All History) History clearly shows that the current U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is also low. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
ISM Manufacturing Index and Credit Returns Across Economic Cycles Since 2004 If investors get the ISM Manufacturing right, they do well. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
S&P 500 and ISM Composite PMI At current levels, the U.S. market is pricing in a strong rebound in the ISM Composite PMI rising to 57. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Performance 12-Months After ISM Manufacturing Index Below 50 for Four Months Since 1950, the S&P 500 has rallied 12-months later, 80% of the time, after the ISM Manufacturing Index was below 50 for four months, with an average return of 12%. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (All History) History clearly shows that the current U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index is low. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index This chart shows the correlation between the ISM manufacturing index and the S&P 500 index year-over-year percent change, since 2011. U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index decreased to 48.1 in November. Keep in mind that it is a survey. Click the Image to Enlarge
U.S. Cyclicals/Defensives vs. ISM Manufacturing PMI Chart showing the large divergence between U.S. cyclicals/defensives and the ISM Manufacturing PMI. Eventually, the gap should close soon. Image: Topdown Charts
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Nonfarm Payroll Growth vs. U.S. Election Outcome Chart showing the relationship between growth trends into U.S. elections and the margin of victory or defeat for incumbent candidates. Historically, the probability of incumbents winning an election increases, as growth trends improve. Image: Bessemer Trust