ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM New Orders – Inventories

ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM New Orders – Inventories The spread between U.S. ISM New Orders and Inventories suggests a positive upward trend in the ISM manufacturing PMI, with new orders increasing at a more rapid pace than inventories. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and Recessions

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and Recessions The U.S. manufacturing sector is currently experiencing its second longest downturn in modern history, attributed to various factors, including elevated interest rates that have suppressed demand. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy

ISM Manufacturing PMI and U.S. Recessions

ISM Manufacturing PMI and U.S. Recessions A drop in the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI below 45 signals significantly heightened recession risks, indicating a severe contraction in the manufacturing sector. Image: BofA Global Research

ISM Manufacturing PMI and Global Stocks vs. Government Bonds

ISM Manufacturing PMI and Global Stocks vs. Government Bonds In a potential shift from a “no” to a “hard” landing scenario, government bonds may outperform due to increased risk aversion, interest rate cuts, lower inflation expectations, and their historical performance during economic downturns. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

U.S. ISM Manufacturing and Services Survey Data

U.S. ISM Manufacturing and Services Survey Data A “soft recession” occurs when the manufacturing side of the U.S. economy contracts while services remain robust, leading to a period of slower economic activity. Image: Real Investment Advice

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI vs. S&P 500 EPS Growth

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI vs. S&P 500 EPS Growth A rise in the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI is suggesting positive growth in 1Q EPS, with expectations of outperforming the initial projections. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. GDP Growth

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. GDP Growth The large gap that currently exists between the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. real GDP will eventually close, as economic indicators tend to align over time. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

ISM Manufacturing Index and SOX Philadelphia Semiconductor Index

ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Semiconductors Semiconductors are discounting a substantial rise in the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, which suggests a robust expansion in manufacturing activity and overall economic growth. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

ISM Manufacturing PMI vs. ISM New Orders – Inventories

ISM Manufacturing PMI vs. ISM New Orders – Inventories The U.S. ISM New Orders less Inventories spread continues to suggest a higher ISM Manufacturing PMI. This correlation points towards a positive outlook for the manufacturing sector. Image: The Daily Shot