New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed trimmed its Q1 2026 U.S. GDP Nowcast to 2.23% from 2.38% a week earlier, keeping the steady-growth narrative alive. The economy’s pace remains solid. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Click the Image to Enlarge
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth The market is telling a slower-growth story. Relative returns between cyclical and defensive stocks imply about 1.5% real GDP growth in the US, far shy of Goldman Sachs’ 2.6% call for Q4. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -3.38% YoY in February. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do…
Markets – Cumulative S&P 500 Growth vs. Cumulative Real GDP Growth vs. Cumulative S&P Sales Growth Years of Fed stimulus have taught investors to buy every dip, pushing U.S. markets skyward and away from the real economy. The disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street has never been clearer. Image: Real Investment Advice
Recession – Leading Economic Index (LEI) vs. U.S. GDP A recession isn’t on the radar for 2026, but the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index keeps sliding, hinting that growth could still lose steam this year. The coming months may reveal how resilient the U.S. economy really is. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs is betting on a resilient U.S. economy, projecting growth of 2.7% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, both ahead of consensus, as easing inflation and steady hiring keep the expansion on track. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global Economy – GDP Growth Projections The IMF projects global growth at 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. Strong tech spending, policy support, and private-sector agility are keeping momentum alive despite shifting trade winds. Image: International Monetary Fund
U.S. Corporate Profits as % of Real GDP U.S. corporate profits are running far ahead of real economy growth, reaching the widest gap on record. History shows that such divergences rarely last once markets face reality. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Budget Deficit as a % of GDP The U.S. administration’s strong interest in rate cuts is largely driven by the need to make financing the enormous deficit more sustainable. By lowering rates, the government can reduce borrowing costs and ease the budgetary pressure. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. GDP vs. S&P 500 EPS With GDP growth and S&P 500 earnings moving in lockstep, vigilance is warranted. Valuations are lofty, forecasts are rosy, and history shows that when the economy cools, earnings don’t stay hot for long. Image: Real Investment Advice
Impact of U.S. Quarter-Over-Quarter Annualized GDP Growth Momentum looks set to build for the U.S. economy in 2026, driven by fading tariffs, fresh tax cuts, and easier financial conditions. Still, inflation remains the wildcard that could cloud an otherwise brighter growth outlook. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research