Conference Board U.S. Leading Index (LEI) vs. U.S. GDP

Conference Board U.S. Leading Index vs. U.S. GDP This chart shows the good correlation between the Conference Board U.S. Leading Index Year-over-Year (white line) and U.S. GDP (blue line). The LEI is a good recession indicator. Image: Bloomberg, Jeroen Blokland

China-US Trade as % of Chinese GDP

China-US Trade as % of Chinese GDP The downtrend in China-US trade will be hard to reverse, even with the “phase one” trade deal. Image: Financial Times

U.S. Real GDP Leading Indicator

U.S. Real GDP Leading Indicator The U.S. real GDP leading indicator suggests an improvement in the second half of 2020 (R² = 0.74). Image: KKR Global Macro

S&P 500 Realized Volatility and U.S. Real GDP Growth

S&P 500 Realized Volatility and U.S. Real GDP Growth Chart suggesting the correlation between the S&P 500 realized volatility and U.S. real GDP growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

OECD Total LEI lead OECD Real GDP

OECD Total LEI lead OECD Real GDP This chart suggests that the OECD’s leading economic indicators lead OCDE real GDP by 6 months. Image: Strategas

Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate

Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate The GDPNow model estimate for U.S. real GDP growth is now 1.8% for 2019:Q4. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta