Conference Board U.S. Leading Index vs. U.S. GDP This chart shows the good correlation between the Conference Board U.S. Leading Index Year-over-Year (white line) and U.S. GDP (blue line). The LEI is a good recession indicator. Image: Bloomberg, Jeroen Blokland
China-US Trade as % of Chinese GDP The downtrend in China-US trade will be hard to reverse, even with the “phase one” trade deal. Image: Financial Times
U.S. Real GDP Leading Indicator The U.S. real GDP leading indicator suggests an improvement in the second half of 2020 (R² = 0.74). Image: KKR Global Macro
Commercial and Industrial Loans of U.S. Banks as % of GDP vs. Deliquency Rate Is the end of the U.S. credit cycle near? The delinquency rate remains low, while U.S. business loans are close to previous highs. Image: Pavilion Global Markets
S&P 500 Realized Volatility and U.S. Real GDP Growth Chart suggesting the correlation between the S&P 500 realized volatility and U.S. real GDP growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global Nominal GDP Growth: 2007 vs. 2019 This chart highlights how much nominal GDP has slowed between 2007 and 2019. Image: KKR Global Macro
OECD Total LEI lead OECD Real GDP This chart suggests that the OECD’s leading economic indicators lead OCDE real GDP by 6 months. Image: Strategas
Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate The GDPNow model estimate for U.S. real GDP growth is now 1.8% for 2019:Q4. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Global Economy and Global Real GDP Growth Morgan Stanley expects global growth to improve by 60 bps over 5 quarters. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Production Index Leads U.S. GDP Chart suggesting that the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Production Index leads U.S. GDP by 5 months. Image: Pictet Wealth Management