Search Results for: GDP

New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed’s Q2 2025 GDP Nowcast has been revised upward to 2.72%, up from 2.61% the previous week. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Click the Image to Enlarge

Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model predicts an annualized contraction of -2.5% in U.S. real GDP for Q1 2025, while the alternative model that incorporates gold import and export data forecasts a smaller decline of -0.4%. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Gold vs. U.S. M2 and U.S. Debt to GDP Historically, gold prices have tracked the expansion of the money supply and have responded to increases in U.S. government debt. Image: J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Global Economy – GDP Growth Projections The International Monetary Fund projects global economic growth of 2.8% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, reflecting a subdued outlook shaped by persistent trade tensions and high policy uncertainty. Image: International Monetary Fund

U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs now forecasts U.S. GDP growth at just 0.5% in 2025, sharply revised down due to increased financial and policy risks, highlighting concerns about a difficult and uncertain economic outlook Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth While the U.S. stock market reflects some caution amid global uncertainties, its resilience indicates that a full-blown recession scenario is not yet priced in. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Financial Conditions Index and Real GDP Growth from FCI Last week, U.S. financial conditions tightened significantly following the White House’s announcement of “reciprocal” tariffs and China’s retaliatory measures, raising global concerns among investors and policymakers. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Impact on U.S. YoY Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs has cut its 2025 Q4/Q4 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% and raised its 12-month recession probability from 35% to 45%, citing tighter financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, and heightened policy uncertainty. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -5.55% YoY in March. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do…

U.S. GDP vs. S&P 500 EPS The strong correlation between GDP growth and S&P 500 EPS underscores the importance of cautious investment strategies, particularly given current high market valuations and optimistic earnings forecasts. Image: Real Investment Advice

Historical S&P 500 Returns Based on GDP Growth and Real Rates Can investors expect a +8% total return for the S&P 500 this year? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research