Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at 0.61% YoY in September. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do…
U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs sees little sign of a meaningful U.S. slowdown, forecasting growth of 2.4% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027, broadly in line with consensus, as a resilient labor market continues to support activity. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth The message from markets is steady growth, not a boom. The gap between cyclicals and defensives points to roughly 2.3% real GDP growth in the U.S., broadly in line with Goldman Sachs’ 2.0% forward 4Q GDP growth forecast. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed nudged its Q4 2026 U.S. GDP nowcast down to 2.55% from 2.59%, a minor revision that leaves the growth outlook intact. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New YorkClick the Image to Enlarge
U.S. Corporate Profits as % of GDP U.S. corporate profits as a share of GDP are at record highs, which on their own don’t signal an imminent recession. The question is not whether margins are high, but how long structural supports can hold them up. Image: J.P. Morgan
G7 Budget Deficits, Share of GDP The U.S. is running by far the largest budget deficit among G7 economies when measured relative to GDP, and projections show little improvement over the next few years. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Global Economy – GDP Growth Projections The IMF projects global growth at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. Robust tech investment, steady policy support, and a surprisingly flexible private sector are keeping momentum alive despite the Middle East conflict. Image: International Monetary Fund
Impact of U.S. Quarter-Over-Quarter Annualized GDP Growth The boost from the 2025 fiscal bill may be short-lived, as the conflict in the Middle East drives oil prices higher and curbs U.S. growth prospects. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Quarterly Annualized Real U.S. GDP Growth Under the baseline, oil prices hit $110 in March and ease to $71 by 2026 Q4, pulling the projected 2026 Q4/Q4 US GDP growth down 0.3 percentage points to 2.2%. The hit to output looks modest given how sharp the oil price swing is. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…
Markets – Cumulative S&P 500 Growth vs. Cumulative Real GDP Growth vs. Cumulative S&P Sales Growth Years of Fed stimulus have taught investors to buy every dip, pushing U.S. markets skyward and away from the real economy. The disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street has never been clearer. Image: Real Investment Advice
Recession – Leading Economic Index (LEI) vs. U.S. GDP A recession isn’t on the radar for 2026, but the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index keeps sliding, hinting that growth could still lose steam this year. The coming months may reveal how resilient the U.S. economy really is. Image: Real Investment Advice