Search Results for: GDP

New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed lifted its Q3 2026 U.S. GDP nowcast to 2.47% from 2.36% last week, still signaling a steady expansion. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Click the Image to Enlarge

U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs is sticking with its U.S. growth forecast, seeing the economy hold at 2.1% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027, backed by tax cuts, easier financial conditions, and fading tariff headwinds. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth Markets are leaning toward a steady growth outlook. The gap between cyclicals and defensives points to U.S. real GDP growth of about 1.8%, broadly in line with Goldman Sachs’ 1.9% forward 4Q GDP growth forecast. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -0.92% YoY in May. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do…

Global Economy – GDP Growth Projections The IMF projects global growth at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. Robust tech investment, steady policy support, and a surprisingly flexible private sector are keeping momentum alive despite the Middle East conflict. Image: International Monetary Fund

Impact of U.S. Quarter-Over-Quarter Annualized GDP Growth The boost from the 2025 fiscal bill may be short-lived, as the conflict in the Middle East drives oil prices higher and curbs U.S. growth prospects. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Quarterly Annualized Real U.S. GDP Growth Under the baseline, oil prices hit $110 in March and ease to $71 by 2026 Q4, pulling the projected 2026 Q4/Q4 US GDP growth down 0.3 percentage points to 2.2%. The hit to output looks modest given how sharp the oil price swing is. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…

Markets – Cumulative S&P 500 Growth vs. Cumulative Real GDP Growth vs. Cumulative S&P Sales Growth Years of Fed stimulus have taught investors to buy every dip, pushing U.S. markets skyward and away from the real economy. The disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street has never been clearer. Image: Real Investment Advice

Recession – Leading Economic Index (LEI) vs. U.S. GDP A recession isn’t on the radar for 2026, but the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index keeps sliding, hinting that growth could still lose steam this year. The coming months may reveal how resilient the U.S. economy really is. Image: Real Investment Advice

U.S. Corporate Profits as % of Real GDP U.S. corporate profits are running far ahead of real economy growth, reaching the widest gap on record. History shows that such divergences rarely last once markets face reality. Image: Real Investment Advice

U.S. Budget Deficit as a % of GDP The U.S. administration’s strong interest in rate cuts is largely driven by the need to make financing the enormous deficit more sustainable. By lowering rates, the government can reduce borrowing costs and ease the budgetary pressure. Image: Bloomberg