Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -3.77% YoY in December. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do…
Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate The Atlanta Fed’s latest GDPNow forecast projects a 2.7% annualized increase in U.S. real GDP for Q4 2024, reflecting ongoing economic expansion. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
China – Nominal GDP Growth vs. 10-Year Government Bond Yield The persistent drop in bond yields is often seen as a sign of increasing investor caution regarding economic growth, which does not bode well for China’s nominal GDP growth moving forward. Image: Alpine Macro
U.S. M2 to Nominal GDP Ratio The return of the U.S. M2 to nominal GDP ratio to its long-term trend is a positive indicator. It reflects a healthier balance between money supply and economic output, fostering stability and sustainable growth in the economy. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Global Debt as % of GDP Over the past 25 years, the global debt-to-GDP ratio has risen significantly, driven by major economic events like the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Image: Deutsche Bank
The World Economy – GDP by Country The United States has maintained its position as the world’s largest economy for over a century and is projected to continue this trend in 2025, unless, of course, aliens land and demand a trade deal! Image: Visual Capitalist
U.S. Debt to GDP Ratio The projected surge in U.S. federal debt over the next three decades may adversely impact the economy, resulting in elevated interest payments, strained resources, and possible constraints on economic growth and government flexibility. Image: Deutsche Bank
Federal Debt Outstanding % GDP and Federal Interest Payments % GDP Recent interest rate cuts are easing federal interest expenses but raise concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability, as interest payments are expected to increase significantly in the future. Image: TS Lombard
DM Economies Real GDP and Working Age Population CAGR The working-age population plays a pivotal role in driving economic growth and productivity. However, many developed nations face a projected decline in this demographic, potentially hindering their economic prospects. Image: Deutsche Bank
Markets – Cumulative S&P 500 Growth vs. Cumulative Real GDP Growth vs. Cumulative S&P Sales Growth The growing disconnect between the U.S. stock market and real economy raises concerns about economic inequality, financial stability, policy challenges and sustainable growth. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. GDP Growth Goldman Sachs expresses optimism regarding the resilience of the U.S. economy, forecasting a more favorable GDP growth outlook for 2025 than current consensus estimates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research