S&P 500 Seasonal Composite 4 Year Presidential Election Cycle The S&P 500’s behavior in 2025 continues to align with the presidential election 4-year seasonal cycle, which provides a useful framework. Image: Nautilus Research
S&P 500 Seasonality From Election Day in November to the end of the year, the S&P 500 index has historically seen a median return of 4%, reflecting a seasonal pattern where investor optimism and holiday spending boost market performance. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Seasonality Since 1928 The seasonal trends observed since 1928 indicate a pattern where July and August typically see positive stock performance, followed by a dip in late summer and a rally into the year-end. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 Seasonality Analyzing historical trends can provide investors and traders with valuable insights, as it helps to understand the S&P 500’s past performance in the fourth quarter. Image: Goldman Sachs
Performance – Russell 2000 vs. S&P 500 Seasonality Small caps historically tend to outperform the S&P 500 from December to February. Allocating a portion of the portfolio to small cap stocks during this time may benefit investors. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Seasonality – March’s Historical Returns Historically, March tends to be a good month for U.S. stocks. Image: Real Investment Advice
Monthly S&P 500 Seasonality for Presidential Cycle Year 1 S&P 500 seasonality shows that December is historically a positive month in Presidential cycle year 1. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 Seasonality Since 1985 Chart showing the S&P 500 seasonality from 1985 to 2019. This is not a forecast. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
VIX and S&P 500 Seasonality The chart shows the seasonality map for the VIX and the S&P 500, and how they move in opposite directions. Image: Topdown Charts
Monthly S&P 500 Seasonality Back to 1928 The monthly seasonality of the S&P 500 could suggest a pause in February. Image: BofA Global Research
Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Seasonality The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 seasonality chart from 1985 to 2018 (excluding 2008). This is not a forecast. Image: Goldman Sachs