Seasonality – Monthly Return Stats for the S&P 500 Call it the September drag. Since 1964, the S&P 500 has lost an average 0.7% in the month and finished higher in just 46% of Septembers. Can the market defy the script in 2026? Image: Topdown Charts
Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns History paints September as the worst month for U.S. stocks, with the weakest average return since 1950. But this year, August, typically sluggish in midterm years, is already up 3%. Do the odds look different this time? Image: Carson Investment Research
Seasonality – S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2026 The S&P 500 Cycle Composite still points to a constructive year for 2026, but the near-term path may be bumpy. U.S. stocks are entering their weakest seasonal stretch, which typically runs from mid-August through early October. Image: Ned Davis Research
S&P 500 Quarterly EPS Seasonally Adjusted S&P 500 earnings are running 14% above their nine-decade trend line. Any pullback toward the mean would make today’s rich valuations look fragile fast. Image: Deutsche Bank
Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Returns in June The second half of June has a track record of frustrating equity bulls, with U.S. stocks often drifting lower. The bright spot is that we are now halfway through this typical June swoon. Image: Carson Investment Research
Seasonality – S&P 500 Average Monthly Returns Since 1950 Since 1950, the S&P 500 has returned just 1.7% from May to October, versus more than 7% from November to April. When the market hits May near record highs, that already weak stretch has tended to get weaker. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 – Seasonality During Bull vs. Bear Markets (Midterm Election Years Only) Bull markets don’t offer immunity. U.S. midterm election years tend to bring choppier trading and elevated volatility for the S&P 500 until late in the year. Image: Topdown Charts
Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Returns in December As the holidays approach, buyers usually return and the year-end rally tends to pick up speed in the second half of December. Historically, U.S. stocks have climbed an average of 1.4% during the month. Image: Carson Investment Research
Seasonality – Average Daily Performance of the S&P 500 After October 27, retail optimism, corporate buybacks, and institutional repositioning can inject fresh energy into U.S. markets. For many traders, it’s the unofficial start of the year-end run. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Index – Seasonal 3-Month Forward Return Historically, this is go-time for the S&P 500. If past trends hold, the next three months could deliver some of the index’s strongest cumulative gains. Image: Renaissance Macro Research
Quarterly Seasonality of S&P 500 Returns vs. STOXX Europe 600 U.S. equity returns tend to be strongest relative to Europe during the second quarter. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research