Equities – MSCI U.S./RoW Distance from 200-DMA The MSCI U.S./RoW distance from the 200-DMA highlights a major interruption to the narrative of U.S. exceptionalism and reinforces the need for global diversification in equity portfolios. Image: Bloomberg
Aggregated U.S. Equity Futures Positions and S&P 500 Relative to Its 200-DMA While leveraged funds and asset managers have slightly scaled back their bullish stance, they still maintain substantial net long positions in U.S. equity futures. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Cumulative Flows from Global Investors into DM and EM funds In 2024, equity funds in developed and emerging markets have experienced substantial inflows from global investors, reflecting a resurgence of confidence in the market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
DM Economies Real GDP and Working Age Population CAGR The working-age population plays a pivotal role in driving economic growth and productivity. However, many developed nations face a projected decline in this demographic, potentially hindering their economic prospects. Image: Deutsche Bank
Active Global Equity Fund Flows and % MSCI ACWI Members Trading Above 200-DMA Flows to active global equity funds correlate strongly with stock price dispersion. Higher dispersion creates more opportunities for active managers, especially in volatile markets, boosting investor interest and inflows. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
EM/DM Relative Performance vs. U.S. Dollar The strength of the U.S. dollar can affect the relative performance of EM/DM equities. A weak U.S. dollar has historically led to outperformance of emerging market equities. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Forward S&P 500 Return Following Break in 200-DMA Staying above the 200-day moving average may provide higher forward returns for the S&P 500 index, indicating positive market momentum and potentially leading to favorable investment outcomes. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Ratio to 200 DMA and ISM Manufacturing PMI The S&P 500 was pricing an ISM Manufacturing PMI of 40. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 – The Secular Bull Market Roadmap So far, U.S. stocks continue to behave like a secular bull market. Image: Fidelity Investments
U.S. Dollar Index – Democratic Administration vs. Republican Administration The U.S. dollar has weakened under President Trump, but it remains strong under President Biden so far. Image: Bloomberg
Cumulative Change in Three-Month Interest Rates Futures Across DM Economies Markets expect higher interest rates in several DM economies. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research