Trade Tensions Events and Average Correlation of Assets Tracking China Related Risks This chart shows the risk of renewed US-China trade tensions and market pricing. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global GDP Growth Outlook – Trade Tensions vs. Policy Easing The escalation of trade tensions is a risk to the global economy outlook. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Why Trade Tensions Are Not Driving the U.S. Stock Market? Because many Unicorns are going public in the United States this year. Secondly, U.S. banks are healthier than ever and liquidity conditions are quite good in the U.S.. So all in all, that’s far more important than trade tensions. Image: Bloomberg
BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator for Global Trade Tensions The recent decline of the indicator suggests that investors may be more complacent about the risk and impact of trade conflicts. Source: BlackRock Investment Institute – Global Investment Outlook Q2 2019
U.S. Trade Balance with China by Month U.S. deficit with China narrowed slightly in a year of trade tensions. Image: Oxford Economics
Global Trade Volume Chart showing weaker global trade volumes amid trade tensions. Image: Financial Times
S&P 500 Target Goldman Sachs forecasts the S&P 500 to reach 6,100 by year-end and 6,500 within the next year, based on stronger economic growth, improved earnings prospects, and reduced risks related to trade tensions and recession. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Price Target Goldman Sachs has raised its S&P 500 target to 5,900 over the next three months, citing lower tariff rates and reduced recession risks following a significant easing in U.S.-China trade tensions. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Unemployment Rate Could the U.S. consumer—remarkably resilient thus far—face potential cracks from escalating trade tensions, immigration policy shifts, and fiscal adjustments? Image: Deutsche Bank
Total Returns for a Selection of Major Global Financial Assets since the U.S. Election Since Inauguration Day, U.S. stocks have significantly underperformed major global financial assets, largely due to trade tensions, policy uncertainty, and a notable shift in investor sentiment toward international markets. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 2025 EPS Estimate After Tariff Impact Deutsche Bank slashed its 2025 S&P 500 EPS estimate to $240 (from $282) due to tariffs’ outsized burden on U.S. companies. The S&P 500 index could rally to 6,150 if trade tensions meaningfully abate. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation