Trade Tensions Events and Average Correlation of Assets Tracking China Related Risks This chart shows the risk of renewed US-China trade tensions and market pricing. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global GDP Growth Outlook – Trade Tensions vs. Policy Easing The escalation of trade tensions is a risk to the global economy outlook. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Why Trade Tensions Are Not Driving the U.S. Stock Market? Because many Unicorns are going public in the United States this year. Secondly, U.S. banks are healthier than ever and liquidity conditions are quite good in the U.S.. So all in all, that’s far more important than trade tensions. Image: Bloomberg
BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator for Global Trade Tensions The recent decline of the indicator suggests that investors may be more complacent about the risk and impact of trade conflicts. Source: BlackRock Investment Institute – Global Investment Outlook Q2 2019
U.S. Trade Balance with China by Month U.S. deficit with China narrowed slightly in a year of trade tensions. Image: Oxford Economics
Global Trade Volume Chart showing weaker global trade volumes amid trade tensions. Image: Financial Times
U.S. Recession Probability May’s tariff relief helped temper U.S. recession odds and buoy investor sentiment, but this new round of trade tensions could put that fragile calm to the test. Image: Deutsche Bank
VIX Seasonality Volatility flare-ups aren’t uncommon this time of year, as political risk and trade tensions bubble back to the surface, sending ripples of anxiety through global markets. Image: Topdown Charts
International vs. Domestic Exposure Export-oriented U.S. stocks surged after the tariff pause announcement, reflecting growing investor optimism over easing trade tensions—though potential tariff policy changes remain key factors to watch. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Price Target Goldman Sachs has raised its S&P 500 target to 5,900 over the next three months, citing lower tariff rates and reduced recession risks following a significant easing in U.S.-China trade tensions. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Unemployment Rate Could the U.S. consumer—remarkably resilient thus far—face potential cracks from escalating trade tensions, immigration policy shifts, and fiscal adjustments? Image: Deutsche Bank