Trade Tensions Events and Average Correlation of Assets Tracking China Related Risks This chart shows the risk of renewed US-China trade tensions and market pricing. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global GDP Growth Outlook – Trade Tensions vs. Policy Easing The escalation of trade tensions is a risk to the global economy outlook. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Why Trade Tensions Are Not Driving the U.S. Stock Market? Because many Unicorns are going public in the United States this year. Secondly, U.S. banks are healthier than ever and liquidity conditions are quite good in the U.S.. So all in all, that’s far more important than trade tensions. Image: Bloomberg
BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator for Global Trade Tensions The recent decline of the indicator suggests that investors may be more complacent about the risk and impact of trade conflicts. Source: BlackRock Investment Institute – Global Investment Outlook Q2 2019
U.S. Trade Balance with China by Month U.S. deficit with China narrowed slightly in a year of trade tensions. Image: Oxford Economics
Global Trade Volume Chart showing weaker global trade volumes amid trade tensions. Image: Financial Times
S&P 500 Price Target Goldman Sachs has raised its S&P 500 target to 5,900 over the next three months, citing lower tariff rates and reduced recession risks following a significant easing in U.S.-China trade tensions. Image: Bloomberg
Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index The U.S. dollar has fallen roughly 8% since its February high, as investor confidence in US assets weakens amid escalating trade tensions, uncertain tariff policies, and worries over economic growth. Image: Bloomberg
Consolidated Equity Positioning Consolidated equity positioning remains low at the 12th percentile. Should trade tensions ease, significant upside potential may emerge as investor confidence and positioning return to normal. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Unemployment Rate Could the U.S. consumer—remarkably resilient thus far—face potential cracks from escalating trade tensions, immigration policy shifts, and fiscal adjustments? Image: Deutsche Bank
Total Returns for a Selection of Major Global Financial Assets since the U.S. Election Since Inauguration Day, U.S. stocks have significantly underperformed major global financial assets, largely due to trade tensions, policy uncertainty, and a notable shift in investor sentiment toward international markets. Image: Deutsche Bank