U.S. High Yield Credit Spreads vs. VIX High-yield spreads are pricing in a smooth ride. Spreads are tight, balance sheets look solid, and the risk is that confidence slips into complacency. Active monitoring helps catch early signs of stress.Image: Topdown Charts
U.S. High Yield Index OAS The credit cycle usually rolls over before equities do. For now, credit is not buying the equity stress story. U.S. high-yield OAS sits near 270 bps, still a long way from the 800 bps that typically signals recession risk. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. High Yield Credit Spreads Tight high-yield spreads signal strong market confidence, but they also raise red flags by potentially masking underlying vulnerabilities and feeding investor complacency by making risks seem less significant than they are. Image: Topdown Charts
U.S. High Yield Credit Spreads and Recessions U.S. high-yield credit spreads in May 2025 show little evidence of recession fears, remaining well below the levels seen during previous downturns. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 and Treasury Bond to Corporate BB High Yield Spread Widening credit spreads often signal upcoming declines in the S&P 500, serving as a valuable leading indicator of equity market stress because they typically react early to shifts in market sentiment and risk. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 and U.S. High Yield OAS The new cycle low in the U.S. high yield option-adjusted spread is seen as a promising signal for the S&P 500, supporting bullish expectations as we approach the end of the year. Image: BofA Global Research
Weekly High Yield Fund Flows Over the past week, U.S. high-yield funds experienced their largest outflow in nine weeks, signaling a shift in investor sentiment towards lower-risk assets. Image: BofA Global Research
High Yield Bond Flows Persistence outflows from high yield bonds could signal a lack of confidence in the underlying companies and their capacity to fulfill debt obligations, making it a crucial indicator to monitor closely. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Global High Yield Bond Prices High-yield bonds are often called the “canary in the coal mine”, as they are seen as a leading indicator of the health of the economy. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
FMS Investors – Net % Think High Grade Will Outpferform High Yield Bonds Will high yield bonds outperform IG bonds over the next 12 months? Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
U.S. High Yield vs. Investment Grade Returns and Conference Board U.S. Leading Index Historically, the outperformance of high yield bonds relative to investment grade bonds has followed the Conference Board U.S. Leading Index. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management