Dow Jones Industrial Average Around Second Fed Rate Cut This chart shows that a second rate cut has been bullish. On average, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 19% over the next 12 months. Picture source: Ned Davis Research
U.S. Industrial Sectors in Contraction Below Recession Levels Currently, the percentage of U.S. industrial sectors in contraction is below recession levels. Picture source: TS Lombard
U.S. Industrial Production and GDP This chart clearly shows the divergence between U.S. industrial production and GDP, since the financial crisis. Picture source: Gavekal, Macrobond
S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary / Industrials Around First Fed Rate Cut If consumer discretionary outperforms industrials after first Fed rate cut, then it could signal a recession. Picture source: Ned Davis Research
Industrial Search Trends Looking Optimistic This chart shows the rise in search interest in the U.S.. That’s good news after a fall in 2018, because industrial search trends tend to lead realized growth by a decent margin. Picture source: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
Dow Jones Industrial Average Around First Fed Rate Cut After first Fed rate cut, the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s gains are +24% on average when no recession, and +11% with a recession within 12 months. Picture source: Ned Davis, Ed Clissold
U.S. Industrial Production YoY by Segment since 2013 Another excellent chart showing the U.S. industrial production by segment. Picture source: Pervalle Global
The Dow Jones Industrial Average Since 1896 If you listen to the news, there is always a good reason not to be invested in the stock market. You may also like “The Stock Market Continues to Climb the Wall of Worry.” Picture source: virtueofselfishinvesting.com Click the Picture to Enlarge
Commodity Stock Index vs. Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1937 The chart shows that commodity stock prices have never been more depressed relative to the stock market. This Commodity Stock Index aligns with S&P North American Natural Resource Stock Index. Picture source: Goehring & Rozencwajg
Commercial and Industrial Loans Continue to Accelerate in the U.S. That’s a positive sign for the U.S. economy. Indeed, U.S. banks wouldn’t be lending if they were concerned about the economic situation. Past three recessions saw bank loans negative year over year.
