Performance – MSCI China vs. MSCI EM China’s performance relative to emerging markets has closely correlated with Trump’s implied winning probability in the prediction market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Performance – Large Cap Growth vs. Small Cap Value Large-cap growth stocks are outperforming small-cap value stocks at a level not seen since the dot-com bubble era. Historical patterns and the potential for economic recovery indicate that this trend may change in the long term. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Performance – Ratio of Russell 2000 Index to Nasdaq Composite Small-cap stocks are currently at a record low relative to the Nasdaq Composite. Factors that could drive small-cap stocks to outperform include a rise in M&A and IPOs, robust earnings growth, and changes in interest rates. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
S&P 500 Performance After >50% of the Components Make a 20-Day High When more than 50% of S&P 500 components hit a 20-day high, the S&P 500 index tends to perform strongly in the following 12 months, with a median increase of 16.4% in value seen a year later since 1972. Image: Carson Investment Research
Performance – U.S. vs. Global ex-U.S. Given that U.S. equities are at record highs compared to global stocks, should long-term investors consider reallocating a larger portion of their portfolios to global ex-U.S. stocks instead of heavily investing in U.S. equities? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Performance – Large Cap vs. Small Cap The durability of the rotation from U.S. large caps to U.S. small caps remains to be seen as the market assesses the implications of changing inflation and rate expectations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Sentiment – Risk Appetite and Expected U.S. Equity Market Performance U.S. equity investors’ risk appetite has declined in July, marking a shift towards net risk aversion not seen since January. Investors have also grown increasingly pessimistic about the prospects for near-term returns. Image: S&P Global Market Intelligence
Performance – Regional Banks vs. Large Banks Would investors be better served by focusing on quality large bank names rather than trying to find value in the regional banking sector at this time? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
S&P 500 – Indexed Performance Will the S&P 500 continue to track the 1995 analog? In 1995, the Fed cut interest rates, marking the last soft landing in the U.S. economy. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance After New All-Time Highs On All Five Days of the Week When the S&P 500 hits new all-time highs on all five days of the week, historical data suggests a bullish outlook over the next 12 months, with a median return of 8.7% since 1950. Image: Carson Investment Research