Equity Performance – MSCI China vs. MSCI U.S. Beijing’s early-2024 intervention lit a rocket under Chinese equities, leaving Wall Street in the dust. Fueled by stimulus and growing investor conviction, the rally could stretch further if geopolitical tensions cool. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Seasonality – Average Daily Performance of the S&P 500 After October 27, retail optimism, corporate buybacks, and institutional repositioning can inject fresh energy into U.S. markets. For many traders, it’s the unofficial start of the year-end run. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Yearly Performance During Bull Markets History favors the bulls: since 1950, only once has an S&P 500 bull market ended in its fourth year—history therefore favors further upside over a transition to bear market. Image: Carson Investment Research Click the Image to Enlarge
Sentiment – Risk Appetite and Expected U.S. Equity Market Performance Risk is back—barely. U.S. equity investors turned positive in October, helped by looser monetary policy. But the comeback remains fragile, with expensive valuations and political noise keeping optimism on a short leash. Image: S&P Global Market Intelligence
Performance of a Basket of Stocks with the Highest Net Call Volume Momentum-driven strategies have been ripping higher lately, a reminder of how herd behavior and trend-chasing can turbocharge short-term rallies. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Yearly Performance During Bull Markets Now in its fourth year, the bull market shows little sign of tiring. History still favors the bulls—since 1950, this phase of the cycle has usually meant more upside, not a break into bear territory. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance After >35% in Six Months History stands with the bulls: up over 35% in six months, the S&P 500 has rarely moved this fast—only five times since 1950. Each time, the rally kept rolling, with an average 13.4% gain over the next year. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance During Government Shutdowns Shutdown headlines can spark short-term volatility, yet the market’s track record tells a different story—since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged a 12.7% rise in the 12 months after such episodes, posting gains about 86% of the time. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance Around Growth Score Peak U.S. equities tend to perform well on average following growth score peaks, particularly if there is no recession and policy easing occurs. In that backdrop, valuations can be pushed even further if macro conditions remain steady. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance Around First Fed Cut When the U.S. economy grows and monetary easing comes without recession risk, large-cap equities usually lead, fueled by lower borrowing costs, rising profitability, and stable economic conditions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Performance – S&P 500 vs. MSCI ACWI vs. Nasdaq 100 The Fed cutting interest rates while stocks are at record highs and the economy is still growing creates a bullish setup for equities, boosting investor optimism about future returns. Image: Bloomberg