Performance of S&P 500 Megacap Growth Stocks vs. Rest of S&P 500 Mega-cap growth and tech stocks relative to the S&P 500 were hovering near the top of a decade-long trend channel. The latest pullback suggests a familiar unwind of stretched positioning, not a break in regime. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Relative Total Return Performance S&P 500 Momentum vs. Low Volatility Stocks The ratio of S&P 500 momentum to low volatility stocks is nearing Tech Bubble peaks, pointing to a tech-fueled late cycle. The trend can extend, but it also heightens the risk of a more abrupt downside if that leadership falters. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
S&P 500 Performance One Year After 5% Monthly Gains The bulls have history on their side. Since 1950, a May rally of more than 5% in the S&P 500, like this year, has been followed by gains over the next year every single time, averaging 21%. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance – % Difference vs. the 200-DMA The S&P 500 is trading about 11% above its 200-day moving average, not far from past peaks. The further it stretches, the more vulnerable it becomes to a consolidation, or a move back toward the average. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Performance After Nine Week Wins Streaks A 9-week win streak tends to have legs. In 9 out of 10 cases, the S&P 500 has moved higher in the next month, suggesting June could extend the run. Over the next year, gains showed up 8 times out of 10, with a median rise of…
S&P 500 Performance After >10% April/May Returns The S&P 500 surged 16.1% in April and May, the second-best performance on record. History suggests momentum tends to carry. In prior double-digit gains, June has always been positive, with the rest of the year adding an average 18.6%. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance After Day 100 Is Up >9% YTD Momentum, once built, rarely fades quickly. When the S&P 500 is up more than 9% by day 100, the rest of the year has historically delivered a median gain of 11.1% since 1950, keeping bulls smiling. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance After Eight Week Wins Streaks Up >12% An eight-week winning streak and a rise of more than 12% set the tone. Since 1950, U.S. stocks have followed up with a median 12-month return of 20.1% and have never finished lower. That is the kind of backdrop bulls like. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance Around Issuance Upcycles Past issuance waves tell a familiar story: they usually line up with strong U.S. equity performance, underpinned by steady buying interest. That pattern is tough to ignore in a rising market. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Dow Jones Performance Under Various Federal Reserve Bank Chairs The Dow has performed well under Jerome Powell, delivering an annualized return of 8.4%, comfortably above the long-term average of 6.2%. That puts him 8th among the 16 Fed chairs. Will Kevin Warsh do better? Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance per Year of a 4-Year Presidential Cycle Midterm years have a reputation for shaky markets. History tells a different story in second presidential terms, with U.S. stocks averaging an 8.8% gain since 1950. Those midterm jitters tend to fade quicker than investors expect. Image: Carson Investment Research