S&P 500 Short Interest

S&P 500 Short Interest This chart shows that S&P 500 short interest rebounded from cycle lows (as of July 31, 2019). Picture source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

More than 200 Years of US Interest Rates in One Chart

More than 200 Years of U.S. Interest Rates in One Chart This long term chart covers more than two centuries of US interest rates (yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury). Picture source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Click the Picture to Enlarge

World Population in 2018

World Population in 2018 Interesting world map: the country’s size represents the size of the population. You may also like “World Population & Demographics – More People Over 65 than Under 5 for the First Time.” Picture source: Our World in Data   Click the Picture to Enlarge  

New York Fed Probability of Recession in Next 12 Months since 1990

New York Fed Probability of Recession in Next 12 Months since 1990 When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term economic outlookis poor and that the yields offered by long-term fixed income securities will continue to decline. Since 1962, no recession has occurred without an inverted…

Yield Curve Inversion, How Long Until The Recession?

Yield Curve Inversion, How Long Until The Recession? In recent history, once the 10-Year minus 3-Month Treasury yield spread is negative and hits 10 consecutive days, it persists for weeks/months. When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term economic outlook is poor and that the yields offered…

What Indicators to Watch for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming?

What Indicators to Watch for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming? 1) In recent history, a recession occurs about 12 to 18 months after the spread between the 30-year and the 3-month treasury yields turns negative (red arrow). When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term…

One of the Best Yield Curves to Predict a Recession is Coming

One of the Best Yield Curves to Predict a Recession is Coming The spread between the 30-year and the 3-month treasury yields is one of the best recession signal of all the yield spreads. In recent history, a recession occurs about 12 to 18 months after the yield curve inverts. When an inverted yield curve…

Yield Curve vs. Real Fed Funds Rate

Yield Curve vs. Real Fed Funds Rate In modern history, every recession was preceded by an inverted yield curve and high real interest rates. When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term economic outlook is poor and that the yields offered by long-term fixed income securities will…