One of the Best Yield Curves to Predict a Recession is Coming

One of the Best Yield Curves to Predict a Recession is Coming The spread between the 30-year and the 3-month treasury yields is one of the best recession signal of all the yield spreads. In recent history, a recession occurs about 12 to 18 months after the yield curve inverts. When an inverted yield curve…

Yield Curve vs. Real Fed Funds Rate

Yield Curve vs. Real Fed Funds Rate In modern history, every recession was preceded by an inverted yield curve and high real interest rates. When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term economic outlook is poor and that the yields offered by long-term fixed income securities will…

Home

Advanced Stock Market Forecast 96% Correlation since 1970 Stock Market Valuation Short- and Long-Term Forecasts Bull and Bear Indicator Equity Risk Premium R² = 0.94 since 1970 For Professional and Individual View More Subscribe Now! Check out our Stock Market Forecasting Models “Your results are very interesting” Howard Marks Legendary investor Our Features Five Advanced…