U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Thursday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day up 0.77%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the…
S&P 500 Forward Returns After Extreme AAII Bearish Sentiment Peaks Since 1990, when the AAII bearish sentiment exceeded 45%, as it did recently, the S&P 500 has delivered strong 12‑month gains, averaging more than 18%. Once again, the market looks ready to climb just when investors least expect it. Image: Real Investment Advice
Investors Intelligence Bull-Bear Spread and S&P 500 Bulls are slipping out the side door. Over the past decade, every sustained S&P 500 gain came when the II bull‑bear spread topped 20%. That kind of conviction is missing now. Image: Hi Mount Research
S&P 500 – Seasonality During Bull vs. Bear Markets (Midterm Election Years Only) Bull markets don’t offer immunity. U.S. midterm election years tend to bring choppier trading and elevated volatility for the S&P 500 until late in the year. Image: Topdown Charts
Average S&P 500 Performance Around Bear Markets and Corrections U.S. stocks have a history of pushing higher toward bull market peaks before eventually pulling back. In such periods, corrections tend to be brief, with rebounds coming faster than during deeper bear cycles. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Bear Market – Number of S&P 500 Stocks Down 20% or More More than a third of S&P 500 stocks are down 20% or more, even as the index holds up. It’s a reminder that market breadth is thinning, often a sign of late-cycle fatigue. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
AAII Bulls Minus Bears and S&P 500 Returns The AAII bulls minus bears sentiment spread in 2025 has mirrored bear market extremes from history, reflecting deep pessimism over near‑term stock performance — but to contrarians, that gloom looks like opportunity. Image: Carson Investment Research
Cumulative Bull vs. Bear Markets Why do bear markets matter? Because most of the gains of an inflation-adjusted bull run can be erased when the next downturn hits. Image: Real Investment Advice
AAII Investor Sentiment Bull Minus Bear Spread The AAII bull-bear spread points to a balanced mood among U.S. retail investors who expect stock prices to decline in the near term—a condition that could set the stage for a sharper move in either direction. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Ratio to Its 200-DMA and AAII Investor Sentiment Bull Minus Bear Spread Historically, very low investor sentiment has not only signaled caution but also suggested further upside in U.S. equities, offering opportunities for contrarian investors. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 – Length and Severity of Bear and Subsequent Bull Markets Since 1970, the typical bear market lasts roughly 14 months, experiencing an average decline of around 38%, and is followed by bull markets that last about 70 months and generate average returns of 221%. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management