GS Asia Bear Market Risk Indicator – Recession Risk The GS Asia Bear Market Risk Indicator rose to 75% in August. Bear market risk is rising. Picture source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
BofAML Bull & Bear Indicator The BofAML bull & bear indicator suggests that investors are bearish. Historically, it’s been positive for risky assets like commodities and equities. Picture source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
BofAML Bull & Bear Indicator History The BofAML bull & bear indicator suggests a contrarian bullish signal on stocks. Picture source: BofA Merrill Lynch
S&P 500 Bull and Bear Markets In recent history, past bear markets have been shorter than bull markets. Picture source: Charles Schwab
AAII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bull vs. AAII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bear Spread The current spread suggests excessive pessimism. Picture source: Nautilus Research
GS Bear Market Risk Indicator Goldman Sachs’s bear market risk indicator is still at a high level. Above 60 percent, it suggests that investors should be cautious on the market. A blue line shows a bear market and/or a recession. Picture source: Goldman Sachs
Equity Market Performance Around Bear Markets Interesting chart showing the average return before and after equity market peaks from 1945 to 2018. You may also like “First, Middle, Final Years of S&P 500 Bull Markets since 1975.” Picture source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
The 1994-1998-2011 Mini-Bear Analog If the Fed cuts rate as expected, this great chart shows where the U.S stock market (S&P 500) could go next. Picture source: Fidelity Investments
Fear Of Recessions? S&P 500 Bull and Bear Markets since 1946 A long-term investor should put downturns in perspective. Picture source: Charles Schwab
U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales vs. Recessions U.S. heavy trucks sales fell in August to 534K. Before recessions and bear markets, heavy truck sales peak and then decline. Currently, heavy trucks sales are still trending upwards and suggest that there is no imminent recession on the horizon. You may also like “Heavy Truck Sales as Recession Indicator.”
