S&P 500 Corrections and Bear Markets Since World War II Corrections and bear markets, while inevitable and uncomfortable, often reset valuations—providing long-term investors a chance to reevaluate holdings and build positions at attractive levels. Image: Carson Investment Research
Average S&P 500 Performance Around Bear Markets and Corrections The recent U.S. equity market sell-off ranks among the most severe short-term declines since 1929. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
AAII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bearish Readings > 50 The current AAII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bearish reading of 58.9% marks the 7th consecutive week above 50%, aligning with the record streak observed in October 1990, which coincided with a major market low. Image: The Daily Shot
MSCI AC World – Bear Market Rallies Since the 1980s, there have been 19 global bear market rallies, lasting 44 days on average with MSCI AC World returns of 10–15%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Different Type of Bear Markets While both cyclical and event-driven bear markets tend to drop by approximately 30%, their durations vary. Cyclical bear markets average two years, whereas event-driven ones last about eight months and recover within a year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Bear Markets Should the S&P 500 transition into a bear market, history shows that patient investors are often rewarded in the year and two-year windows after the bear market starts. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Bear Markets S&P 500 bear markets tied to recessions don’t end before the recession starts. Those without a recession are rare and usually short. Image: TS Lombard
S&P 500 Performance After AAII Bears Above 50% Five Straight Weeks Historically, when bearish sentiment in the AAII poll surpasses 50% for five straight weeks, U.S. stocks have shown an average return of 21% over the next 12 months, with positive returns occurring 100% of the time since 1990. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Corrections and Bear Markets Market corrections don’t always lead to bear markets. In fact, historical data shows that only 13 of the past 39 corrections transitioned into bear markets, giving bulls reason to smile! Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance After Enters a 10% Correction, But Doesn’t Go into a Bear Market Historically, when the S&P 500 falls 10% without entering a bear market, it’s a potential buying opportunity. Since 1950, it has always been higher 6 and 12 months later, with a median 12-month return of 15.2%. Image: Carson Investment Research
How Often Does a Correction Turn into a Bear Market? Historically, a 10% correction rarely leads to a 20% bear market without economic downturns, earnings declines, or rate hikes. With no very serious adverse indicators currently, a bear market seems unlikely in the near term. Image: Carson Investment Research