Are Small Cap Stocks Overvalued? Small Cap Stocks Valuation: based on the forward PE ratio, the valuation of small cap stocks seems reasonable, with no sign of bubble. You may also like our “Stock Market Valuation.” Picture source: Bianco Research
Is The U.S. Stock Market Overvalued? S&P 500 Valuation: the chart shows that the U.S. stock market is not cheap. Based on the forward P/E ratio, the S&P 500 is not extremely overvalued either. You may also like our “Stock Market Valuation.” Picture source: Bianco Research
Why the US Stock Market Was Overvalued by 14.2% on Oct. 1, 2018 vs. 7.7% Today? Because the value of the forecast changes over time (blue dotted line). The US stock market short-term forecast (S&P 500 with dividends reinvested) for the next 12 months is available to our subscribers. This great prediction model is updated daily.…
Six months ago, the S&P 500 was overvalued by more than 14%… Six months ago, the S&P 500 was overvalued by more than 14% before the market crash, through our advanced stock market valuation model. Near the same level today and within 1% of a record high, the US stock market remains slightly overvalued by 7.8%.…
U.S. Long Term Nominal GDP Growth and U.S. 10-Year Bond Yield According to this chart, U.S. bonds are overvalued. Picture source: Topdown Charts
The Equity Risk Premium May Be Bullish The equity risk premium suggests that the S&P 500 is not overvalued, which may be a bullish signal. You may also like our “Stock Market Equity Risk Premium.” Picture source: Fidelity Management and Research
Stock Market Capitalization as a Percentage of Nominal GDP This ratio is useful in determining whether the U.S. stock market is undervalued or overvalued relative to its historical average. The current reading is pretty high at 149.15%. You may also like the “Stock Market Valuation” and “S&P 500 Index – Earnings & Valuation.” Picture source: Bianco Research
S&P 500 Valuation Above Historical Average The S&P 500 is overvalued on 17 of 20 valuation metrics. You may also like our “Stock Market Valuation.” Picture source: Bank of America
The Gold to Oil Ratio since 2018 When the gold to oil ratio approaches 30x, oil is undervalued. When the gold to oil ratio approaches 10x, gold is undervalued. Today, the gold-oil ratio is below 20x. So, neither oil nor gold is undervalued nor overvalued relative to each other. Picture source: Goehring & Rozencwajg
“U.S. Stock Market, No Froth In Sight” Says Stock Market Sentiment Index Keep in mind that it is just another investor sentiment tool. But it does not show at all if the US stock market is overvalued or undervalued. See our stock market valuation model (99% correlation and R² = 0.97 since 1970).
