Most frequent questions and answers
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Past data do not inform future trends. That’s the reason why the forecasting models are updated every business day and before the opening of the US stock exchanges.
The forecasting models should only serve as decision support tools in your own process that is unique to you.
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Empower your knowledge and discover a multitude of recession indicators from our blog.
Using mathematical formulas, statistics and algorithms, the stock market forecasting models extract insights from multiple financial data. They produce strong forecasts of the US stock market for the next 12 months to 10 years, with a very high degree of confidence. They help our members to make better and faster decisions by extracting the signal from the noise.
To see the whole picture instantly, mathematical models are great decision support tools, based on algorithms and probabilities, and not on emotional responses.
The forecasting models have a great 99% correlation with the US stock market on a quarterly basis since 1970 and an R² of 0.97. It means that 97 percent of the US stock market variance is predictable by the flows of data used.
The Stock Market Equity Risk Premium forecasting model calculates the US stock market excess return over the 10-Year Treasury Note. This great model shows if the US stock market return for the next 10 years is more or less attractive than the 10-Year Treasury Note.
The S&P 500 Index is certainly the best-known proxy. Indeed, it is a broad representation of the overall US stock market because it captures 80% of the market capitalization of $24.5 trillion in September 2018.
Academics and researchers use the S&P 500 as a proxy to perform statistical and pattern studies.