Performance – MCG & Tech Ratio to the Rest of the S&P 500 After rebounding from the bottom of its long-term trend channel, the relative performance of MCG & Tech has approached levels that have marked previous reversals, leaving little near-term upside to justify the risk. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
MCG & Tech vs. The Rest Earnings Growth Tech earnings are expected to surge in the third quarter, but even that may not be enough to lift the sector in the near term. Earnings expectations are far lower across the rest of the S&P 500. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Performance – MCG & Tech Ratio to the Rest of the S&P 500 The rotation into Tech has been powerful, but the rally may still have fuel left. Continued earnings strength in AI infrastructure, cloud computing, and software could give investors reason to keep buying. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
NASDAQ 100 vs. Tech Capex The Nasdaq 100 turned lower in 2000, nine months before tech investment as a share of U.S. GDP peaked. Will this time be different? Image: BCA Research
S&P 500 Index and Technical Score At 81.39, the S&P 500 is firmly in overbought territory. Momentum still favors the bulls and supports are intact, but the climb may not be smooth. Image: Real Investment Advice
Global Share Buyback vs. Tech Sector Share in U.S. Buybacks Tech’s share of U.S. buybacks has climbed over the past decade, but the trend may begin to reverse, as AI spending diverts cash away from shareholders and into capex. Image: J.P. Morgan Flows and Liquidity
Mega-Cap Growth and Large-Cap Tech Positioning Positioning in mega-cap growth and large-cap Tech has eased from its highs but remains modestly overweight, at the 61st percentile. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Technical Composite A composite of technical breadth measures is screaming oversold on the S&P 500, boosting the odds of a reflexive rally. Setups like this can flip quickly once buyers return. Image: MarketDesk Research
Large Cap MCG & Tech Positioning vs. Earnings Revisions Large-cap tech companies have seen upward earnings revisions, but positioning remains only modestly overweight at the 54th percentile. That gap to fundamentals leaves some air for a catch-up trade. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Tech Sector Flows Despite the pullback in tech names, the money isn’t leaving: Tech inflows persist and semi ETFs are still seeing heavy volume. This looks like a consolidation, not the end of the tech/AI trade. Image: Strategas Asset Management
Drawdown from 52 Week High of Various Global Tech Sectors or Tech Sensitive Indices Global tech and the usual tech‑sensitive indices are trading well below their 52‑week highs. This is the kind of year that follows a crowded AI trade, when investors finally see the bill for all that optimism. Image: Deutsche Bank