Search Results for: credit cycle

Euro to U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD) and China’s Credit Cycle (Leading Indicator) China’s credit cycle tends to lead the EUR/USD by one year. Image: Alpine Macro

Where Is the Credit Cycle Headed? “Typically, once the horse leaves the barn on the domestic credit cycle, there’s no turning back…” We all know that never ends well. Image: Hedgeye Risk Management LLC

The Credit Cycle Is Leading the Economic Cycle This great chart shows that an economic slowdows risk is rising. When delinquency rates on consumer loans reach a low, there’s a high probability of a recession on the horizon. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research

S&P 500 Average Median and Positive Hit Rate of Monthly Returns Based on Credit/Fed Cycles Fed easing and credit tightening regime does not bode well for U.S. equities. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy

Equity Fund Flows Cycle, Credit and Government Bond Chart suggesting that the equity fund flows cycle has entered its last phase. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

ISM Manufacturing Index and Credit Returns Across Economic Cycles Since 2004 If investors get the ISM Manufacturing right, they do well. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management

China Credit Impulse – Reflation Cycle This chart shows that China credit impulse has not yet boosted relative earnings. Credit impulse is the change in new credit issued as a percentage of GDP. Image: Fidelity Investments

Can Small Business Predict the Business Cycle? A widening high-yield spread remains a useful indicator for predicting a coming recession in the current interest rate environment. You may also like “A Widening of Credit Spreads Is Very Useful to Predict a Recession.“ Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC​

Commercial and Industrial Loans of U.S. Banks as % of GDP vs. Deliquency Rate Is the end of the U.S. credit cycle near? The delinquency rate remains low, while U.S. business loans are close to previous highs. Image: Pavilion Global Markets

Monthly Net Rating Change The credit ratings upgrade cycle continued in September, which is good news for high yield investors. Image: BofA Global Research