U.S. Dollar and 200-Day Moving Average The DXY dollar’s current position well below its 200-day moving average marks a rare bearish phase, the likes of which have not been seen in two decades, signaling a challenging environment for the U.S. dollar in the near term. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Dollar vs. Gold – Share in Global Reserves As countries and central banks seek to reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar for reserves and international trade, gold has emerged as the preferred alternative asset. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
Performance – S&P 500 vs. 30-Year US Treasury vs. Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar The simultaneous decline of U.S. equities, bonds, and the dollar is rare—especially during periods of market stress— and signals a potential shift in global investor sentiment and the structural underpinnings of U.S. financial markets. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Dollar DXY Index Deviation from PPP Fair Value and Subsequent 10-Year Annualized Return By most measures, the U.S. dollar remains overvalued-even after its recent declines-and appears poised for a secular decline. Image: Bloomberg
The U.S. Dollar and Reserve Status Could the U.S. dollar lose its status as the world’s dominant reserve currency? Historically, leading reserve currencies have held their status for about a hundred years. Image: TS Lombard
U.S. Dollar Exposure of Currency Hedge Funds Hedge funds have significantly increased their bearish bets against the U.S. dollar, reflecting widespread expectations that the dollar will weaken further against other major currencies. Image: J.P. Morgan
Aggregate U.S. Dollar Position, Non-Commercial Traders Speculators are holding their most bearish positions on the U.S. dollar since September 2024, driven by global optimism, de-dollarization trends, and relative strength in other major currencies. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Forward Earnings and U.S. Dollar Index The weakening U.S. dollar is raising significant concerns for U.S. corporate earnings, particularly through its interplay with tariffs and global economic uncertainty. Image: Bloomberg
Oil, 10 Year U.S. Treasury Yields and U.S. Dollar The increasing cohesion in recent years between oil prices, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar reflects deeper economic linkages and heightened sensitivity to policy and market shocks. Image: Deutsche Bank
Gold Prices in 2024 U.S. Dollars The real (inflation-adjusted) price of gold has reached a new all-time high, driven by several factors including U.S. tariff uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and increased demand from global central banks. Image: Deutsche Bank
DXY U.S. Dollar Index vs. Nasdaq Composite / MSCI World Value Over the past two years, U.S. growth stocks—known for their sensitivity to currency fluctuations—have exhibited a strong correlation with the U.S. dollar. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond