U.S. Dollar Exposure of Currency Hedge Funds Hedge funds have significantly increased their bearish bets against the U.S. dollar, reflecting widespread expectations that the dollar will weaken further against other major currencies. Image: J.P. Morgan
Aggregate U.S. Dollar Position, Non-Commercial Traders Speculators are holding their most bearish positions on the U.S. dollar since September 2024, driven by global optimism, de-dollarization trends, and relative strength in other major currencies. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Forward Earnings and U.S. Dollar Index The weakening U.S. dollar is raising significant concerns for U.S. corporate earnings, particularly through its interplay with tariffs and global economic uncertainty. Image: Bloomberg
Oil, 10 Year U.S. Treasury Yields and U.S. Dollar The increasing cohesion in recent years between oil prices, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar reflects deeper economic linkages and heightened sensitivity to policy and market shocks. Image: Deutsche Bank
Gold Prices in 2024 U.S. Dollars The real (inflation-adjusted) price of gold has reached a new all-time high, driven by several factors including U.S. tariff uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and increased demand from global central banks. Image: Deutsche Bank
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield vs. U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) While the strong relationship between U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar has lasted for over a year, investors should remain aware that market dynamics can shift rapidly. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
DXY U.S. Dollar Index vs. Nasdaq Composite / MSCI World Value Over the past two years, U.S. growth stocks—known for their sensitivity to currency fluctuations—have exhibited a strong correlation with the U.S. dollar. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Euro to U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD) The euro has shown strength this week, but caution is warranted. Potential shifts in U.S. trade policy under Trump and ongoing economic disparities continue to give the dollar an edge. Image: Bloomberg
MSCI World Performance vs. U.S. Dollar Index Typically, the relationship between the U.S. dollar’s strength and global equities is significant. A weaker U.S. dollar tends to support global equities, while a stronger dollar generally puts downward pressure on them. Image: J.P. Morgan
U.S. Dollar Index Positioning The U.S. Dollar Index long positioning being in the 95th percentile indicates an extremely bullish sentiment towards the U.S. dollar, potentially indicating that it is overvalued. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Change in U.S. Dollar vs. Change in S&P 500 EPS While there are instances where the U.S. Dollar and S&P 500 EPS may move in tandem, the overall statistical relationship is weak. Image: Morgan Stanley Research