U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and Cyclicals EPS Revision This chart shows the correlation between the ISM Manufacturing Index and cyclicals EPS revision, suggesting that 4Q19 will see a reset, with capital goods pricing in an actual earnings recession. Picture source: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Core CPI (Leading Indicator) Annual core CPI in September remained steady at 2.4% . This chart suggests that the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index leads U.S. Core CPI by 24 months. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index” and “U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months.“…
Global Manufacturing PMI and Multi-Asset Portfolio Returns This chart suggests that markets have not taken into account this year’s growth and profits slump. Picture source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Global Manufacturing PMI Increased After 15 Months of Consecutive Declines Global manufacturing PMI continues to improve after 15 months of consecutive declines. Is the worst over for global PMI? Picture source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
China and Taiwan Manufacturing PMI The charts suggest a bottom in the Chinese and Taiwanese cycle in early 2020. Historically, this has been positive for global equities. Picture source: Danske Bank
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and Cyclical Stocks Great chart showing that cyclical stocks suggest an economic slowdown rather than an imminent recession. Picture source: Leuthold Group
Global Manufacturing PMI Above 50 Is the worst over for global manufacturing PMI? This interesting chart shows the percentage of global manufacturing PMI above 50. Picture source: FactSet, IHS Markit, Charles Schwab
Correlation Between U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and Regional Indexes This chart shows the quite good correlation between the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and regional indexes (Philly Fed, Dallas Fed, Richmond Fed, and NY Empire). Picture source: Saxo Bank
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and Historical Mean The historical mean of the ISM Manufacturing Index stands at 52.9. Picture source: Saxo Bank Research & Strategy
200D Change in Yield Curve 30Y-10Y Leads U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index This great chart suggests that 200-Day Change in Yield Curve 30-Year minus 10-Year spread leads U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index by 16 months. It also suggests that U.S. PMI is bottoming and could bounce back. Picture source: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
