ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index U.S. factory activity weakened further in December, as the ISM Manufacturing Index slipped to 47.9, short of expectations for 48.3, marking another month of contraction and lingering softness across the industrial sector. The chart shows the correlation between the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and the S&P 500 index…
Global Monetary Policy Stimulus and Global Manufacturing PMI The dominant macro theme for 2026 is a global growth rebound, fueled by two years of aggressive monetary easing that have laid the groundwork for renewed economic momentum worldwide. Image: Topdown Charts
U.S. Manufacturing PMI and Global Leading Indicator Leading indicators are turning higher, signaling a growing chance of a global cyclical upswing into the first half of 2026. Image: Bloomberg
Copper to Gold Ratio vs. U.S. ISM Manufacturing A falling copper/gold ratio points to slower U.S. economic growth, reflecting investor caution toward the near-term economic environment. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 EPS Annual % Change With the ISM Manufacturing Index still in contraction territory and strongly correlated with S&P 500 earnings growth, questions arise about the resilience of corporate earnings in 2025. Image: Real Investment Advice
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives ex. Commodities and ISM Manufacturing Index U.S. equity sector rotations are pricing in a “no landing” economic scenario, where the U.S. economy avoids both recession and significant slowdown, maintaining steady growth instead. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls vs. U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI The U.S. ISM manufacturing index reading below 50 signals a contraction in manufacturing activity, which may impact payroll numbers. However, the relationship between the index and actual payroll figures is not straightforward. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Easing rate pressure is projected to facilitate a recovery in U.S. manufacturing as financial conditions improve, inflation declines, and both domestic and foreign demand strengthen. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM New Orders – Inventories The spread between U.S. ISM New Orders and Inventories suggests a positive upward trend in the ISM manufacturing PMI, with new orders increasing at a more rapid pace than inventories. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Percentage of Countries with Manufacturing PMI Above 50 While the global manufacturing sector faced headwinds in mid-2023, the latest data suggest a gradual recovery is underway, with the percentage of countries in expansion nearly doubling from September 2023 to the present. Image: BofA Predictive Analytics
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and Recessions The U.S. manufacturing sector is currently experiencing its second longest downturn in modern history, attributed to various factors, including elevated interest rates that have suppressed demand. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy