U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and Cyclicals EPS Revision

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and Cyclicals EPS Revision This chart shows the correlation between the ISM Manufacturing Index and cyclicals EPS revision, suggesting that 4Q19 will see a reset, with capital goods pricing in an actual earnings recession. Picture source: Morgan Stanley Research

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Core CPI (Leading Indicator)

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Core CPI (Leading Indicator) Annual core CPI in September remained steady at 2.4% . This chart suggests that the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index leads U.S. Core CPI by 24 months. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index” and “U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months.“…

China and Taiwan Manufacturing PMI

China and Taiwan Manufacturing PMI The charts suggest a bottom in the Chinese and Taiwanese cycle in early 2020. Historically, this has been positive for global equities. Picture source: Danske Bank

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and Cyclical Stocks

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and Cyclical Stocks Great chart showing that cyclical stocks suggest an economic slowdown rather than an imminent recession. Picture source: Leuthold Group

Global Manufacturing PMI Above 50

Global Manufacturing PMI Above 50 Is the worst over for global manufacturing PMI? This interesting chart shows the percentage of global manufacturing PMI above 50. Picture source: FactSet, IHS Markit, Charles Schwab

200D Change in Yield Curve 30Y-10Y Leads U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index

200D Change in Yield Curve 30Y-10Y Leads U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index This great chart suggests that 200-Day Change in Yield Curve 30-Year minus 10-Year spread leads U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index by 16 months. It also suggests that U.S. PMI is bottoming and could bounce back. Picture source: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC