Yield Curve 10Y-2Y vs. U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index This great chart suggests that the 10Y-2Y spread (YoY) leads U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (YoY) by 18 months. U.S. PMI could bounce back in 2020. Picture source: Nordea and Macrobond
ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. Long-Term Business Cycle The risk of recession increases when the Macro Composite is above 90% and the ISM Manufacturing Index is falling. Picture source: Pictet Asset Management
ISM Manufacturing Index and S&P 500 Cyclicals vs. Defensives This chart shows the nice correlation between ISM Manufacturing Index and S&P 500 Cyclicals vs. Defensives. Picture source: Nordea and Macrobond
Global Manufacturing vs. Service Sector This chart shows that the global manufacturing sector is in recession, while the service sector is doing well. Picture source: Deutsche Bank Global Research
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. GDP The chart shows the goof correlation between ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and U.S. GDP. Picture source: Piper Jaffray
Global Manufacturing PMI and MSCI World Index The chart shows a pretty good correlation between Global Manufacturing PMI and the MSCI World Index. Stocks and PMI tend to move together. Picture source: Charles Schwab
Global Manufacturing PMI Leads Earnings The chart suggests that Global Manufacturing PMI leads earnings by 9 months. Picture source: Charles Schwab
ISM Manufacturing Index – Mini-Cycles and Recessions During the economic cycle, the last mini-cycle usually leads to a recession. Picture source: Charles Schwab
ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield The decline in U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yields has been in line with falling ISM PMI. Picture Source: Deutsche Bank
ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. Financial Conditions Index Great chart suggesting that the ISM Manufacturing Index could be below 50 soon, and bounce back due to the drop in interest rates around the world. Picture source: Nordea and Macrobond
