Demographics – U.S. Population Aging and Pension Demand for Bonds This chart suggests that U.S. pension demand for bonds is going to increase, as the proportion of 65+ rises. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond
S&P 500 Annual Performance Based On What The First Five Days Do A bullish start to the year for the S&P 500 lifts investor spirits. When the index is up more than 1% in the first 5 trading days, it has historically led to stronger annual returns, averaging 15.7% and ended higher 87% of the…
S&P 500 Index Single Day Average Returns December 26 tends to put Wall Street in a good mood. Since 1950, it has been the S&P 500’s second-best day of the year, averaging a 0.49% gain, just behind October 28. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Returns After Fed Cuts Within 2% of an All-Time High Bears are losing ground as history leans bullish. Since 1980, when the Fed has eased policy while the S&P 500 traded within 2% of an all‑time high, the index has risen every time in the next 12 months, averaging a 14.2% gain Image:…
S&P 500 2026 Price Target Major banks see the S&P 500 averaging 7,500 by the end of 2026, roughly 10% above current levels. Deutsche Bank is the most bullish, calling for 8,000 as earnings broaden beyond tech leaders and AI momentum holds. Image: Financial Times
Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns December usually puts Wall Street in a festive mood. The reason? The Santa Claus rally typically shows up, with U.S. stocks averaging a 1.4% gain since 1950 and ending higher roughly 73% of the time. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance per Year of a 4-Year Presidential Cycle Midterm years usually test investors’ nerves, but history leans in favor of the bulls: U.S. stocks typically outperform in a President’s second term, averaging an 8.8% gain since 1950. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Returns When New Highs Are Made In October A slow start to November may not tell the whole story. When the S&P 500 hits a new high in October, history leans bullish, with the index averaging 3.5% over November and December and finishing higher nearly nine times out of ten. Image: Carson Investment…
S&P 500 – Total Real Return of $1000 Investment with Dollar Cost Average vs. Valuations Sure, dollar-cost averaging can dull the pain of bad timing, but it won’t erase it. Even with the Fed’s heavy hand, recovery from a bear market rarely happens overnight. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Index Peak-to-Trough During a Midterm Year Midterm years often bring large pullbacks — but history says don’t panic. Since 1950, every midterm-year bottom in U.S. stocks has been followed by a powerful rebound, averaging gains of more than 30% over the next 12 months. Image: Carson Investment Research
Margin Debt as % of U.S. Nominal GDP NYSE margin debt exceeding $1.1 trillion, near record highs relative to nominal GDP, signals rapid investor re-leveraging and heightened volatility risk, though not necessarily implying an imminent market crash. Image: Deutsche Bank