Demographics – U.S. Population Aging and Pension Demand for Bonds This chart suggests that U.S. pension demand for bonds is going to increase, as the proportion of 65+ rises. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond
Sahm Rule Recession Indicator – U.S. Unemployment Rate The recent dip in the Sahm Rule indicator below the 0.5 mark is encouraging, as it indicates that a U.S. recession is no longer likely. Image: Deutsche Bank
Implied Fed Funds Target Rate The Fed has revised its 2025 projections, now anticipating only two rate cuts instead of four, with future reductions dependent on the progress made in managing inflation. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Bull Markets Over the past 50 years, five bull markets have lasted over two years, averaging 8 years and a 288% gain. The current bull market, which is 26 months old and up over 70%, is just warming up and ready to break out the party hats! Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance One Year After 5% Monthly Gains Historically, since 1950, when the S&P 500 records gains of over 5% in November, it tends to continue this momentum, averaging a 12.8% return one year later, resulting in a profitable period for investors. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Year-End Return After Rising Over 20% Year-to-Date Historically, after the S&P 500 has risen more than 20%, the average return from now until December 31 tends to be modest, averaging around 1% since the 1970s. Image: Bloomberg
Mentions of AI During Earnings Calls The high percentage of S&P 500 companies mentioning AI in their earnings calls reflects both a notable trend and a fundamental change in how businesses are engaging with technology and innovation. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance After 6-Week Win Streaks Since 1950, 6-week win streaks have generally been bullish for U.S. stocks, averaging an 11.1% increase in value one year later, which gives investors strong reasons to expect a positive 2025. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Returns After Higher 10 of 11 Months Since 1950, when the S&P 500 has been up 10 of the past 11 months using the first signal in a cluster, it has shown a strong tendency to be higher one year later, averaging a gain of 14.7%. Image: Carson Investment Research
China GDP Growth Consensus Estimates GDP upgrades are likely to spur interest in China’s markets, encouraging asset allocation towards sectors that align with the country’s economic transformation. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
S&P 500 Returns When New Highs Are Made In October Bulls smile when new highs are made in October, as the fourth quarter has historically seen gains 90% of the time, averaging a 5% return since 1950. Image: Carson Investment Research