Net Percentage of Central Banks Tightening

Net Percentage of Central Banks Tightening Global central banks battle the slowdown by cutting at fastest rate since the Great Financial Crisis. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Investment Strategy

S&P 500 Around the End of Fed Tightening

S&P 500 Around the End of Fed Tightening As the chart shows, the S&P 500 has performed well on average, around the end of Fed tightening. You may also like “S&P 500 Performance Around Previous Fed Cuts.” Image: Morphic Asset Management Pty Ltd

U.S. TED Spread

U.S. TED Spread The TED spread (spread between 3-month LIBOR and 3-month Treasury bill) shows that financial conditions are tightening at the fastest pace since the 2008 crisis.

Dow Jones Performance Under Various U.S. Presidents

Dow Jones Performance Under Various U.S. Presidents This chart puts into perspective the Dow Jones performance under various U.S. presidents. The annualized return under President Trump is high, given tightening monetary policy. Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC

10Y-3M Treasury Yield Spread Adjusted for QE and QT

10Y-3M Treasury Yield Spread Adjusted for QE and QT Adjusted for quantitative easing (QE) and quantitative tightening (QT), the 10-year minus 3-month yield curve may have inverted in December 2018. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

S&P 500 Index vs. Global M1 Liquidity

S&P 500 Index vs. Global M1 Liquidity Another good correlation between the S&P 500 Index and global M1 liquidity, while the Fed plans to stop quantitative tightening. The money supply M1 is the amount of effective money in the economy. Image: Nordea and Macrobond

Real GDP vs. Real Fed Funds Rate

Real GDP vs. Real Fed Funds Rate One of our most favorite charts is the real GDP vs. the real Fed funds rate (adjusted for inflation). Historically, recessions begin when the real Fed Funds rate exceeds GDP growth. We are far from that today. So, this cycle should not end any time soon. Real Fed…