KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Index and Recessions The KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Index is stable, and labor market conditions remain above their long-run average. Historically, a negative value is a necessary, but not sufficient requirement for recessions: it means that labor market conditions are below their long-run average.
S&P 500 Industrials Index and U.S. Manufacturing Unit Labor Costs When U.S. labor costs rise, industrial profit margins are under pressure. Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC
U.S. Labor Market: Jobs Gains and Jobless Claims The U.S. labor market is slowing, but historically, recessions have been preceded by a slowing in job gains and a pickup in jobless claims. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
U.S. Labor Market Distributions Spider Chart The U.S. Labor Market Distributions Spider Chart shows broad labor market developments. Currently, the U.S. labor market is slipping a little.
Demographics – Labor Force Growth and Term Premium Chart suggesting that growth in the labor force could explain the term premium. The term premium is the risk premium (or the bonus) that investors receive for the risk of owning longer-term bonds. Image: Fidelity Investments
Debt, Demographics and Labor Force Growth The slowdown in the labor force in the U.S., China, Europe and Japan, represents 62% of the world’s GDP and 69% of the equity market capitalization. The labor force growth is expected to be -1% by 2055. Image: Fidelity Investments
Demographics – U.S. 10-Year Rate, Labor Force Growth and Nominal GDP Growth Chart suggesting that the current trend in labor force growth and nominal GDP growth points to higher rates. Image: Swedbank Research
Labor Force Participation Rate for 65-69 Year-Olds in Selected Countries This chart shows the huge disparity in employment rates for 65-69 year-olds across different countries. Image: Statista
U.S. Labor Force vs. Inflation The chart shows the enduring link between labor force and inflation. The chart also suggests that U.S. labor force leads U.S. CPI by three years. Demographic trends imply subdued inflation. You may also like “World Population & Demographics – More People Over 65 than Under 5 for the First Time.”…
Civilian Labor Force Growth vs. Inflation since 1962 This chart suggests that civilian labor force growth leads CPI by four years. Image: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
