KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Index and Recessions The KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Index declined, but labor market conditions remain above their long-run average. A negative value is a necessary, but not sufficient requirement for recessions: it means that labor market conditions are below their long-run average.
U.S. Labor Force vs. Inflation The chart shows the enduring link between labor force and inflation. The chart also suggests that U.S. labor force leads U.S. CPI by three years. Demographic trends imply subdued inflation. You may also like “World Population & Demographics – More People Over 65 than Under 5 for the First Time.”…
Civilian Labor Force Growth vs. Inflation since 1962 This chart suggests that civilian labor force growth leads CPI by four years. Picture source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Labor Costs Lead Core Inflation by 6 Months Historically, U.S. labor costs have been a good leading indicator of core inflation, because when labor costs rise, companies tend to increase their prices. Picture source: Legg Mason
U.S. Consumer Sentiment The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is more sensitive to financial markets, whereas the Conference Board Index reflects labor market conditions. Picture source: J.P. Morgan
Why the Unemployment Rate to 3.6% in April 2019 Is Not So Great? Well, the unemployment level is the lowest since 1969, but when we compare the level of unemployment plus people not in the labor force, to the level of employment, the picture is not so rosy. Ouch!
Which Country Has the Highest Density of Robot Workers? South Korea had 710 installed industrial robots per 10,000 employees in the manufacturing industry in 2017. When robots replace manual labor, the productivity and the quality of products increase dramatically. Robots increase labor productivity levels and won’t take all the jobs. Picture source: Statista
Why Is Core Inflation So Low Compared To Previous Business Cycles? The Consumer Price Index Less Food & Energy (Core CPI) is very low compared to previous business cycles in the US, for several reasons: – not fast-rising money supply – globalization: inflation is a global phenomenon – lack of wage acceleration – increase in…
Visualizing How Americans Spend Their Money The Consumer Expenditure Survey is a Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) survey that collects information on the buying habits of U.S. consumers. Picture source: howmuch.net
Why U.S. Productivity Is Lower Than Previous Business Cycles? The real yield is the most important measure of financial tightness. But as the real yield is near zero, artificially low interest rates are then associated with unnecessary debt, zombie firms and lower productivity than previous business cycles. Zombie firms cannot invest, innovate and increase productivity. …
