Global Market Implied Equity Risk Premiums Stocks in the U.S. and Japan offer investors little compensation for the extra risk they carry relative to bonds. That makes equities a tougher sell and leaves them vulnerable to disappointment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Equity Risk Premium In the U.S., the equity risk premium has shrunk to the point where stocks barely compensate investors for taking risk over bonds. That weakens the bull case for equities and sets the stage for more disappointment. Image: The Daily Shot
Cyclicals vs. Defensives – 12-Month Forward P/E Premium Cyclical stocks are leading the way in 2025, leaving defensives behind as optimism returns to markets. In the U.S., that surge has lifted cyclicals to a valuation premium over safer plays. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Equity Risk Premium and S&P 500 Valuations The current U.S. equity market’s expensive valuations are more grounded in earnings reality than during the late 1990s, but investors should remain cautious due to limited downside protection and valuations ranked at a high percentile. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium and Yield Gap With the S&P 500 equity risk premium at historically low levels, the current investment landscape presents significant challenges for equity investors. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Term Premium The increasing term premium signals that investors require greater compensation for the risks inherent in holding longer-term bonds, reflecting increased concerns about interest rate and inflation over longer durations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium With the U.S. equity risk premium at historically low levels, equity investors face a more challenging environment, as the risk-reward trade-off is less attractive than before. Image: The Daily Shot
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium With the U.S. equity risk premium at low levels, investors face a difficult landscape in which the risks of equity investments may not be sufficiently rewarded. Image: BCA Research
Equity Risk Premium The equity risk premium, at the 94th percentile from 2010 and at the 67th percentile from 2000, suggests that investors may not be receiving adequate compensation for the risks associated with investing in U.S. stocks. Image: J.P. Morgan Equity Macro Research
Equity, Bond, FX and Oil Volatility Premiums Volatility premiums have significantly declined across asset classes after the U.S. elections. As election results become known, market uncertainty diminishes, leading to lower volatility premiums and increased stability. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium Despite potential in U.S. equities, the decline in equity risk premium suggests caution is needed, prompting diversification across asset classes for risk management. Image: BofA Global Research