USA – Explaining 10-Year Yields

USA – Explaining 10-Year Yields This great chart suggests that demographics and globalization explain U.S. 10-year yields. Picture source: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

Global Manufacturing PMIs – USA vs. Rest of the World

Global Manufacturing PMIs – USA vs. Rest of the World Global ex-US manufacturing PMI is below 50 (contraction). We will see if the United States can go it alone in the coming months. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index since 2011“ Picture source: Topdown Charts

Most Important Variables When Forecasting Real GDP

Most Important Variables When Forecasting Real GDP Search trends are very different between China (manufacturing industry) and the USA/Eurozone (consumer), when forecasting real GDP. Picture source: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

How “NO-DEAL Brexit” Would Affect the World’s Economy?

How “NO-DEAL Brexit” Would Affect the World’s Economy? What could a no-deal Brexit mean for developing countries? Main losers if there is a no-deal Brexit: European Union and Turkey. Main winners if there is a no-deal Brexit: China, USA, Japan, Thailand, South Africa, India, Brazil. Picture source: howmuch.net, UNCTAD

Global Earnings since 2006

Global Earnings since 2006 This chart shows global earnings since 2006 (USA, Emerging Markets, Japan and Europe). As Warren Buffett said: “for 240 years, it’s been a terrible mistake to bet against America.” This chart below illustrates it well since 2006. You may also like “Earnings Matter, Over the Long Run.” Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management

How is the Relationship Between the Fed and the Stock Market?

How is the Relationship Between the Fed and the Stock Market? The stock market influences the real economy of goods and services through the wealth effect. And the Fed responds to stock price movements only to the extent justified by their impact on the macro economy. A picture is worth a thousand words, and Hedgeye shows…