Amount of Fed Rate Cuts Priced by End of Year

Amount of Fed Rate Cuts Priced by End of Year The outlook could change quickly in response to upcoming inflation data or shifts in the economic landscape, but for now, traders are pricing in almost two rate cuts before the end of 2025. Image: Bloomberg

Fed Rate Cuts – Implied by Fed Funds Futures

Fed Cuts – Implied by Fed Funds Futures Fewer Fed rate cuts are expected in 2025, but chances of greater easing in 2026 have risen. This reflects caution amid inflation and policy risks, and leaves room for stronger monetary support if economic conditions worsen. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC

Interest Rates – Market Pricing for the Number of Fed Rate Cuts

Interest Rates – Market Pricing for the Number of Fed Rate Cuts Investors should expect only one 25bps Fed rate cut for the remainder of 2025, most likely in September, unless there is a significant deterioration in economic data or a sharp rise in unemployment. Image: The Daily Shot

S&P 500 Pre and Post Fed Rate Cuts

S&P 500 Pre and Post Fed Rate Cuts Historically, U.S. stocks have demonstrated robust performance in the two years following the start of a Fed rate cut cycle, particularly during periods without recession. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Energy Prices vs. Fed Rate Cuts

Energy Prices vs. Fed Rate Cuts Energy prices have historically risen after the Federal Reserve begins cutting interest rates. Image: MarketDesk Research

Average U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Performance in Fed Rate Cut Cycles

Average U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Performance in Fed Rate Cut Cycles Since 1966, the current Fed easing cycle has resulted in the second-worst performance of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds. The only period with worse performance was in 1981, during Chairman Paul Volcker’s aggressive measures to combat inflation. Image: Deutsche Bank

Probability of Fed Rate Cut

Probability of Fed Rate Cut After the CPI data release, traders now estimate an 82.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the FOMC meeting on December 18, 2024. Image: CME GRoup

Performance of S&P 500 Around the First-Rate Cut

Performance of S&P 500 Around the First-Rate Cut The S&P 500 typically shows strong performance following the Fed’s first rate cut, when the U.S. economy avoids a recession during the next 12 months. Image: MarketDesk Research

Number of Global Central Bank Rate Cuts

Number of Global Central Bank Rate Cuts Central banks globally are responding to slowing inflation and the need to stimulate economic growth by cutting interest rates at an unprecedented pace since the COVID-19 pandemic. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

Market Pricing of Fed Rate Cuts

Market Pricing of Fed Rate Cuts BofA expects the Fed to cut another 75bp this year, consistent with market pricing, particularly in light of recent economic conditions and the Fed’s recent decision to cut rates by 50bp. Image: BofA Global Research

Number of Trading Days Since Last Fed Rate Cut

Number of Trading Days Since Last Fed Rate Cut The Fed’s recent decision to cut interest rates for the first time in four years, in response to changing economic conditions, marks the second-longest wait for such a reduction in history. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management