10-Year/2-Year Treasury Yield Curve Around First Fed Rate Cuts The U.S. yield curve typically steepens once the prospect of interest rate cuts by the Fed becomes more imminent, rather than when the Fed actually stops hiking rates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 After Initial Fed Rate Cuts Outside Of Recession Outside of recessions, U.S. stocks have tended to rise after the Fed’s first rate cut, with an average gain of 15% within 12 months. Image: BofA Predictive Analytics
S&P 500 with Start of Rate Cut Cycles and U.S. Recessions Historically, the S&P 500 has tended to post positive returns in the 12 months following the Fed’s first rate cut, unless the U.S. economy enters recession. Image: Deutsche Bank
Global Central Bank Rate Cuts vs. Hikes Since the beginning of the year, there have been more global rate hikes than global rate cuts. Image: BofA Global Credit Research
Fed Funds Rate Cuts and Max Drawdown S&P 500 Historically, Fed rate cuts are not bullish for the S&P 500. Image: Real Investment Advice
First Major Fed Rate Cut – U.S. CPI vs. Unemployment Rate Can the Fed cut interest rates in response to the bank crisis? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Interest Rates – Global Rate Cuts vs. Global Rate Hikes Could global rate hikes have a significant negative impact on markets? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Interest Rates – Duration Between Last Fed Rate Hike and First Rate Cut (Months) Could the Fed cut rates in 2023 to avoid a recession? Image: ING Economics
Interest Rates – Policy Rate Cut vs. Policy Rate Hiked Global rate hikes are increasing. Should investors expect more rate hikes to come? Image: Bloomberg
Interest Rates – Rate Hikes vs. Rate Cuts and Global PMI Manufacturing Global manufacturing PMI levels are screaming for policy tightening. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
A History of Recent Fed Intermeeting Rate Cuts In recent history, once the Fed does 50bps emergency rate cut, they normally go 50bps again at next regular meeting. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research