U.S. Dollar and 200-Day Moving Average The DXY dollar’s current position well below its 200-day moving average marks a rare bearish phase, the likes of which have not been seen in two decades, signaling a challenging environment for the U.S. dollar in the near term. Image: Bloomberg
Global Gold Reserves vs. Global Dollar Reserves Amid rising geopolitical tensions and a shifting global financial landscape, central banks worldwide are increasingly favoring gold over the U.S. dollar as a reserve asset. Image: Blomberg
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield vs. Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index The dollar’s decline amid rising Treasury yields signals concerns over U.S. fiscal health, reduced foreign demand for debt, and geopolitical risks, reflecting a shift in investor confidence and the dollar’s role as a global safe haven. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Dollar vs. Gold – Share in Global Reserves As countries and central banks seek to reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar for reserves and international trade, gold has emerged as the preferred alternative asset. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
Trade Weighted Dollar vs. U.S. Inflation Surprises Since February 2025, the U.S. dollar has closely tracked inflation surprises, as both headline and core inflation came in lower than expected, reflecting Fed policy expectations and concerns about the U.S. economic outlook. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
Federal Reserve Broad Real Effective Trade-Weighted Dollar Both historical trends and current economic indicators suggest that the U.S. dollar is entering a period of decline. Structural fiscal challenges, policy uncertainty, and cyclical patterns all point to further weakness ahead. Image: Bloomberg
Performance – S&P 500 vs. 30-Year US Treasury vs. Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar The simultaneous decline of U.S. equities, bonds, and the dollar is rare—especially during periods of market stress— and signals a potential shift in global investor sentiment and the structural underpinnings of U.S. financial markets. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Drawdown in DXY Dollar Index The U.S. equity drawdown has caused major losses for non-U.S. investors, as falling stock prices and a weaker dollar combined. This has prompted many to reconsider their currency risk strategies and exposure to U.S. equities. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index The U.S. dollar’s slump reflects deepening investor worries about U.S. trade and fiscal policies, with the outlook remaining uncertain as markets await further developments in tariff negotiations and fiscal management. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Dollar DXY Index Deviation from PPP Fair Value and Subsequent 10-Year Annualized Return By most measures, the U.S. dollar remains overvalued-even after its recent declines-and appears poised for a secular decline. Image: Bloomberg
The U.S. Dollar and Reserve Status Could the U.S. dollar lose its status as the world’s dominant reserve currency? Historically, leading reserve currencies have held their status for about a hundred years. Image: TS Lombard