Investor Sentiment – NAAIM Exposure Index and S&P 500 NAAIM Exposure Index dropped to 56.15% (median exposure at 70%). NAAIM members’ optimism was short-lived. Picture source: Willie Delwiche, Baird
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents the two-week moving average exposure to U.S. equity markets reported by NAAIM members. The chart shows that NAAIM members’ optimism was short-lived. Picture source: National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM)
AAII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bull vs. AAII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bear Spread The current spread suggests excessive pessimism. Picture source: Nautilus Research
Weekly AAII Investor Sentiment Survey Bulls push above bears, but when doubt and fear are still present, it does not usually look like a major market top. Picture source: Reuters
GS Sentiment Indicator Are investors be too bullish? Currently, the GS Sentiment Indicator is above average at 1.2 standard deviations. Picture source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Investor Movement Index vs. S&P 500 The Investor Movement Index indicates the sentiment of TD Ameritrade retail investors. Thus, retail investors are net buyers of equities when the stock market is expensive, and they are net sellers of equities when the stock market is cheap. As usual, retail investors react to equity price movements. They buy and sell…
“U.S. Stock Market, No Froth In Sight” Says Stock Market Sentiment Index Keep in mind that it is just another investor sentiment tool. But it does not show at all if the US stock market is overvalued or undervalued. See our stock market valuation model (99% correlation and R² = 0.97 since 1970).
Can History Help Us Predict the Future of the S&P 500? When the S&P 500 hits all-time high and AAII Investor Sentiment Survey bulls is below 35%, then 88% of the time the S&P 500 is positive one year later (1986-2019). Picture source: SentimenTrader
