NBER Recession Dating vs. Market Realization

NBER Recession Dating vs. Market Realization Chart showing the monthly lag between the economic peak and the NBER announcement. NBER announcements don’t really help investors. Image: Real Investment Advice

U.S. Recessions – NBER

U.S. Recessions – NBER Since 1850, this will be the first decade without a recession in the United States. Image: National Bureau of Economic Research

Number of Days Between Cycle Turn and NBER Announcement

Number of Days Between Cycle Turn and NBER Announcement The current U.S. business cycle is the longest on record. But what about the number of days between the cycle turn and the NBER announcement? Image: Lohman Econometrics

Real GDP Increased Moderately Compared to Previous Business Cycles

Real GDP Increased Moderately Compared to Previous Business Cycles Even if we are currently in a late cycle, history helps us to predict the future and this cycle should not end immediately. Each line begins with the peak of the previous business cycle, as determined by the NBER. (Image: Blackrock)

Real Fed Funds Rates Are Very Low Compared to Previous Business Cycles

Real Fed Funds Rate Is Very Low Compared to Previous Business Cycles Today, Real Fed funds rate is very low compared to previous business cycles and well below real GDP. If history helps us to predict the future, then this cycle should not end any time soon. Each line begins with the peak of the…