Trade War Hitting Global Trade Hard

Trade War Hitting Global Trade Hard US-China trade war is hurting Asia export hubs. Singapore is heading for a recession. Picture source: Deutsche Bank Global Research

Trade War and Financial Conditions Index

Trade War and Financial Conditions Index The trade war has tightened the Goldman Sachs FCI by about 60bp cumulatively. The Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index (FCI) is a weighted sum of a long-term corporate yield, a short-term bond yield, the exchange rate, and a stock market variable. Picture source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Effect of the Trade War on U.S. Real GDP Growth

Effect of the Trade War on U.S. Real GDP Growth Assuming no futher escalation, the trade war drag on U.S. growth is expected to peak at about -0.4% in the second half of 2019. Picture source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

The Trade War Effect on Crude Oil

The Trade War Effect on Crude Oil This chart shows Chinese imports of crude oil from U.S.. Picture source: Capital Economics

Concern about the Trade War

Concern about the Trade War 58% of American firms reported negative impacts from the trade war, versus 31% of non-American firms. Ouch! Picture source: American Chamber of Commerce in Singapore

Who Has the Most To Lose in US-China Trade War?

Who Has the Most To Lose in US-China Trade War? The tariffs are no threat and China has more to lose economically in a trade war. Those numbers are estimates but in reality wrong ones and far too high, according to Ken Fisher. Picture source: Oxford Economics

S&P 500 Forward EPS and World Trade Growth

S&P 500 Forward EPS and World Trade Growth The chart shows a pretty good correlation between the S&P 500 forward 12-month EPS and the CPB World Trade Index. Picture source: Oxford Economics, Macrobond