The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. In April, the U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell by 1.0%, signaling slower economic growth ahead but not indicating an imminent recession. Image: The Conference Board
Recession – Economic Output Composite Index vs. LEI With the Economic Output Composite Index in expansionary territory, the likelihood of a recession in the U.S. appears low for now. Image: Real Investment Advice
LEI 6-Month ROC vs. S&P 500 EPS Annual % Change The 6-month annual rate of change of the Leading Economic Index is highly correlated with S&P 500 earnings growth. Should U.S. equity investors remain cautious? Image: Real Investment Advice
Recession – U.S. Conference Board Leading Index (LEI) Does the current decline in the U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) guarantee a recession within the next few months? Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. LEI vs. U.S. GDP and Recessions Should investors bet on a hard or soft landing for the U.S. economy? Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Wage Inflation – Average Hourly Earnings: Leisure and Hospitality Wage inflation is building in the service industry in a context of labor shortages. Image: BofA Global Research
Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) and S&P 500 This chart suggests that the Conference Board Leading Economic Index doesn’t lead the S&P 500 price performance. Image: Charles Schwab
Conference Board U.S. Leading Index vs. U.S. GDP This chart shows the good correlation between the Conference Board U.S. Leading Index Year-over-Year (white line) and U.S. GDP (blue line). The LEI is a good recession indicator. Image: Bloomberg, Jeroen Blokland
OECD Total LEI lead OECD Real GDP This chart suggests that the OECD’s leading economic indicators lead OCDE real GDP by 6 months. Image: Strategas
Leading Economic Index (LEI) and Fed Funds Rate Will the Fed’s three rate cuts be enough to lift the U.S. economy? Image: Oxford Economics
OECD LEI Tends to Lead Global Manufacturing PMI by 6 Months Chart suggesting a pick-up in the global manufacturing PMI. Image: Nordea and Macrobond