OECD Composite Leading Indicator (LEI)

OECD Composite Leading Indicator (LEI) Leading economic indicators suggest that the global economy may have bottomed. Picture source: Gavekal, Macrobond

Leading Economic Indicators (LEI): U.S. vs. Global

Leading Economic Indicators (LEI): U.S. vs. Global Leading economic indicators appear to be stabilizing, outside the United States. The central banks’ policy response could have a positive knock-on effect on global growth. Picture source: Legg Mason

Fed Funds Target Rate and VIX

Fed Funds Target Rate and VIX Is more volatility expected ahead? This great chart suggests that the Fed funds target rate leads VIX by 2 years. You may also like “VIX is in a Transitory State” and “The Yield Curve Leads Volatility by Three Years.” Picture source: Bloomberg, Jeffrey Kleintop

Conference Board U.S. Leading Index vs. U.S. GDP Growth

Conference Board U.S. Leading Index vs. U.S. GDP Growth This chart shows the strong correlation between the Conference Board U.S. Leading Index Year-over-Year and U.S. GDP growth. The U.S. LEI suggests a weakness in U.S. GDP growth in Q2 2019. It is also a good recession indicator. Picture source: Pictet Wealth Management

Conference Board U.S. Leading Index vs. U.S. GDP

Conference Board U.S. Leading Index vs. U.S. GDP This great chart shows the strong correlation between the Conference Board US Leading Index Year-over-Year (white line) and U.S. GDP (blue line). Keep in mind that the LEI is also a good recession indicator. Picture source: Bloomberg, Jeroen Blokland

Leading Indicators Show Growth Is Slowing, But Is Still Positive

Leading Indicators Show Growth Is Slowing, But Is Still Positive Since 1970, the Leading Economic Index has turned negative year-over-year, on average 14 months before all recessions. U.S. growth is slowing, but the current LEI rose 2.7% year-over-year and suggests there is no imminent recession on the horizon. Picture source: LPL Financial LLC