The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in July LEI for the U.S. increased 0.5% in July and suggests that the U.S. economy should continue to expand in H2 2019. Picture source: The Conference Board
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) and Fed Insurance Rate Cuts This chart shows that Fed insurance rate cuts can be good news when the U.S. economy slows down. Picture source: Scotiabank
OECD Composite Leading Indicator (LEI) Leading economic indicators suggest that the global economy may have bottomed. Picture source: Gavekal, Macrobond
Leading Economic Indicators (LEI): U.S. vs. Global Leading economic indicators appear to be stabilizing, outside the United States. The central banks’ policy response could have a positive knock-on effect on global growth. Picture source: Legg Mason
Conference Board U.S. LEI and 6-Month S&P 500 Forward Return A Fed rate cut is good for the S&P 500 when the Conference Board U.S. LEI is positive. Picture source: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
Conference Board U.S. LEI and U.S. Treasury 10-Year/2-Year Spread Is a rate cut justified in July? Just take a look at the Conference Board Leading Economic Index and the U.S. Treasury 10-Year/2-Year spread. Picture source: Strategas
Fed Funds Target Rate and VIX Is more volatility expected ahead? This great chart suggests that the Fed funds target rate leads VIX by 2 years. You may also like “VIX is in a Transitory State” and “The Yield Curve Leads Volatility by Three Years.” Picture source: Bloomberg, Jeffrey Kleintop
Conference Board U.S. Leading Index vs. U.S. GDP Growth This chart shows the strong correlation between the Conference Board U.S. Leading Index Year-over-Year and U.S. GDP growth. The U.S. LEI suggests a weakness in U.S. GDP growth in Q2 2019. It is also a good recession indicator. Picture source: Pictet Wealth Management
Conference Board U.S. Leading Index vs. U.S. GDP This great chart shows the strong correlation between the Conference Board US Leading Index Year-over-Year (white line) and U.S. GDP (blue line). Keep in mind that the LEI is also a good recession indicator. Picture source: Bloomberg, Jeroen Blokland
Leading Indicators Show Growth Is Slowing, But Is Still Positive Since 1970, the Leading Economic Index has turned negative year-over-year, on average 14 months before all recessions. U.S. growth is slowing, but the current LEI rose 2.7% year-over-year and suggests there is no imminent recession on the horizon. Picture source: LPL Financial LLC
