U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) and Calibrated Recession Index The Calibrated Recession Index suggests a low probability of U.S. recession over the next 4-6 months. U.S. recession odds for 2020 are 40%. Picture source: Oxford Economics
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Decreased in Sept. LEI for the U.S. decreased 0.1% in September and suggests that the U.S. economy is still growing, but more slowly. Picture source: The Conference Board
S&P 500 and Leading Economic Index (LEI) This chart shows that stimulus has saved the U.S. stock market each time. Saved once again? Picture source: Stifel
Conference Board Leading Economic Index for U.S. (LEI) LEI suggests that the U.S. economy should continue to expand in H2 2019. Picture source: Ken Fisher
Copper to Gold Ratio and Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) When the copper-to-gold ratio decreases, it is an early warning signal for the economy, meaning that growth optimism is fading. Picture source: Wells Fargo Investment Institute
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) and Fed Insurance Rate Cuts This chart shows that Fed insurance rate cuts can be good news when the U.S. economy slows down. Picture source: Scotiabank
Leading Economic Indicators (LEI): U.S. vs. Global Leading economic indicators appear to be stabilizing, outside the United States. The central banks’ policy response could have a positive knock-on effect on global growth. Picture source: Legg Mason
Conference Board U.S. LEI and 6-Month S&P 500 Forward Return A Fed rate cut is good for the S&P 500 when the Conference Board U.S. LEI is positive. Picture source: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
Conference Board U.S. LEI and U.S. Treasury 10-Year/2-Year Spread Is a rate cut justified in July? Just take a look at the Conference Board Leading Economic Index and the U.S. Treasury 10-Year/2-Year spread. Picture source: Strategas
Fed Funds Target Rate and VIX Is more volatility expected ahead? This great chart suggests that the Fed funds target rate leads VIX by 2 years. You may also like “VIX is in a Transitory State” and “The Yield Curve Leads Volatility by Three Years.” Picture source: Bloomberg, Jeffrey Kleintop
