The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. The U.S. LEI decreased by 0.8% in October, suggesting a recession is increasingly likely before year-end and could last through mid-2023. Image: The Conference Board
Recession – Economic Output Composite Index vs. LEI The Economic Output Composite Index and the LEI are screaming that a U.S. recession is around the corner. Image: Real Investment Advice
LEI 6-Month ROC vs. S&P 500 EPS Annual % Change The 6-month annual rate of change of the Leading Economic Index is highly correlated with S&P 500 earnings growth. Should U.S. equity investors be worried? Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Wage Inflation – Average Hourly Earnings: Leisure and Hospitality Wage inflation is building in the service industry in a context of labor shortages. Image: BofA Global Research
Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) and S&P 500 This chart suggests that the Conference Board Leading Economic Index doesn’t lead the S&P 500 price performance. Image: Charles Schwab
Conference Board U.S. Leading Index vs. U.S. GDP This chart shows the good correlation between the Conference Board U.S. Leading Index Year-over-Year (white line) and U.S. GDP (blue line). The LEI is a good recession indicator. Image: Bloomberg, Jeroen Blokland
OECD Total LEI lead OECD Real GDP This chart suggests that the OECD’s leading economic indicators lead OCDE real GDP by 6 months. Image: Strategas
Leading Economic Index (LEI) and Fed Funds Rate Will the Fed’s three rate cuts be enough to lift the U.S. economy? Image: Oxford Economics
OECD LEI Tends to Lead Global Manufacturing PMI by 6 Months Chart suggesting a pick-up in the global manufacturing PMI. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. and Recessions Leading economic indicators are still trending upward. The U.S. economy is growing, but more slowly. Image: Calamos Investments LLC