Recession – Leading Economic Index (LEI) vs. U.S. GDP A recession isn’t on the radar for 2026, but the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index keeps sliding, hinting that growth could still lose steam this year. The coming months may reveal how resilient the U.S. economy really is. Image: Real Investment Advice
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. A 0.5% decline in the U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) in August 2025 indicates an ongoing slowdown in U.S. economic activity. Image: The Conference Board
LEI 6-Month ROC vs. S&P 500 EPS Annual % Change The 6-month annual rate of change of the Leading Economic Index is highly correlated with S&P 500 earnings growth. Should U.S. equity investors remain cautious? Image: Real Investment Advice
Recession – U.S. Conference Board Leading Index (LEI) Does the current decline in the U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) guarantee a recession within the next few months? Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. LEI vs. U.S. GDP and Recessions Should investors bet on a hard or soft landing for the U.S. economy? Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Wage Inflation – Average Hourly Earnings: Leisure and Hospitality Wage inflation is building in the service industry in a context of labor shortages. Image: BofA Global Research
Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) and S&P 500 This chart suggests that the Conference Board Leading Economic Index doesn’t lead the S&P 500 price performance. Image: Charles Schwab
Conference Board U.S. Leading Index vs. U.S. GDP This chart shows the good correlation between the Conference Board U.S. Leading Index Year-over-Year (white line) and U.S. GDP (blue line). The LEI is a good recession indicator. Image: Bloomberg, Jeroen Blokland
OECD Total LEI lead OECD Real GDP This chart suggests that the OECD’s leading economic indicators lead OCDE real GDP by 6 months. Image: Strategas
Leading Economic Index (LEI) and Fed Funds Rate Will the Fed’s three rate cuts be enough to lift the U.S. economy? Image: Oxford Economics
OECD LEI Tends to Lead Global Manufacturing PMI by 6 Months Chart suggesting a pick-up in the global manufacturing PMI. Image: Nordea and Macrobond