Search Results for: LEI

Recession – Economic Output Composite Index vs. LEI The Economic Output Composite Index suggests the U.S. economy is dangerously close to contraction. Image: Real Investment Advice

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. The U.S. LEI decreased by 0.4% in May, suggesting a weaker economic activity in the near term. Image: The Conference Board

U.S. Wage Inflation – Average Hourly Earnings: Leisure and Hospitality Wage inflation is building in the service industry in a context of labor shortages. Image: BofA Global Research

Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) and S&P 500 This chart suggests that the Conference Board Leading Economic Index doesn’t lead the S&P 500 price performance. Image: Charles Schwab

Conference Board U.S. Leading Index vs. U.S. GDP This chart shows the good correlation between the Conference Board U.S. Leading Index Year-over-Year (white line) and U.S. GDP (blue line). The LEI is a good recession indicator. Image: Bloomberg, Jeroen Blokland

OECD Total LEI lead OECD Real GDP This chart suggests that the OECD’s leading economic indicators lead OCDE real GDP by 6 months. Image: Strategas

Leading Economic Index (LEI) and Fed Funds Rate Will the Fed’s three rate cuts be enough to lift the U.S. economy? Image: Oxford Economics

OECD LEI Tends to Lead Global Manufacturing PMI by 6 Months Chart suggesting a pick-up in the global manufacturing PMI. Image: Nordea and Macrobond

Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. and Recessions Leading economic indicators are still trending upward. The U.S. economy is growing, but more slowly. Image: Calamos Investments LLC

U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) and Calibrated Recession Index The Calibrated Recession Index suggests a low probability of U.S. recession over the next 4-6 months. U.S. recession odds for 2020 are 40%. Image: Oxford Economics