U.S. Commercial Banks and Savings Institutions Interest Income from Earnings Assets vs. U.S. Fed Funds Rate Does it really make sense to keep raising interest rates if U.S. commercial banks can’t survive with the current federal funds rate? Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Household Debt-to-Income Ratios U.S. households have improved their balance sheets in the past decade. Image: Deutsche Bank
Earnings – S&P 500 Net Income Growth and Fed Funds Rate Fed rate hikes suggest an earnings recession. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Consensus Net Income – S&P 500 vs. S&P 500 ex Energy Have U.S. equities fully priced in the risk of recession? Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Earnings – S&P 500 Trailing 12-Month Net Income Growth vs. Fed Funds Rate Deviation from Trend (Leading Indicator) The change in fed funds rate suggests an earnings recession. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Housing Bubbles – Real House Prices vs. House Prices / Disposable Income Is an housing crash on the horizon? Image: MBR Partners
Flows – Fixed-Income Assets Flows into Treasury-Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) funds have been very strong, as they offer investors protection against rising inflation. Image: BofA Global Research
Oil Price Relative to U.S. Personal Disposable Income The impact of the recent oil surge, adjusted for U.S. personal incomes, is much smaller than that of previous oil shocks. Image: Alpine Macro
U.S. Small-Cap Stocks – Share of Russell 2000 Stocks with Negative NTM Net Income The number of unprofitable companies in the Russell 2000 is rising. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Estimated EPS Impact from a 90bp YoY Increase in Cash Yield Through Interest Income Historically, the S&P 500 tends to do well during Fed hike cycles. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy