Lower Incomes Paid the Highest Price

Lower Incomes Paid the Highest Price Low-income groups are slowly recovering after the financial crisis. Inequality: you may also like “U.S. Net Worth by Wealth Bracket.” Picture source: Deutsche Bank Global Research

Income Shares of the Top 1% in Various Countries

Income Shares of the Top 1% in Various Countries The richest 1% of Americans take 20% of national income, but the richest 1% of the Dutch people only 6%. Denmark and the Netherlands are the countries that are the most equal. Picture source: World Economic Forum

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities Currently, the probability of recession is 0.88%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history tells us that the probability of recession is increasing. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four…

U.S. Net Worth by Wealth Bracket

U.S. Net Worth by Wealth Bracket Another chart showing the wealth disparities before and after the Great Recession. Inequality: you may also like “Lower Incomes Paid the Highest Price.” Picture source: Axios

BBB Debt by Sector in the U.S.

BBB Debt by Sector in the U.S. By sector in the U.S., financial institutions have the largest amount of ‘BBB’ debt: $744 billion. That’s 53% of investment-grade bonds in the United States. You may also like “The U.S. Corporate Bond Debt Rated ‘BBB’ Exceeds $3 trillion.”  Picture source: S&P Global Fixed Income Research

New York Fed Probability of Recession in Next 12 Months since 1990

New York Fed Probability of Recession in Next 12 Months since 1990 When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term economic outlookis poor and that the yields offered by long-term fixed income securities will continue to decline. Since 1962, no recession has occurred without an inverted…

Yield Curve Inversion, How Long Until The Recession?

Yield Curve Inversion, How Long Until The Recession? In recent history, once the 10-Year minus 3-Month Treasury yield spread is negative and hits 10 consecutive days, it persists for weeks/months. When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term economic outlook is poor and that the yields offered…

The U.S. Corporate Bond Debt Rated ‘BBB’ Exceeds $3 trillion

The U.S. Corporate Bond Debt Rated ‘BBB’ Exceeds $3 trillion The U.S. corporate bond debt rated ‘BBB’ exceeds $3 trillion. That’s 53% of investment-grade bonds in the United States. Keep in mind that any drop in the credit ratings could amplify the next recession: many investment grade investors own BBB-rated bonds, but are not allowed…

What Indicators to Watch for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming?

What Indicators to Watch for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming? 1) In recent history, a recession occurs about 12 to 18 months after the spread between the 30-year and the 3-month treasury yields turns negative (red arrow). When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term…