Stocks – Indexed Consensus NTM Net Income The widening gap in expected net income between mega-cap tech stocks and the bottom 493 stocks of the S&P 500 highlights the concentration risk and volatility associated with the dominance of these tech stocks in the index. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Cumulative Inflows to U.S. ETFs with Derivative Income Strategies Over the course of the past two years, the scale of capital flows into U.S. ETFs via options strategies has increased dramatically, reflecting a shift in investor preferences and strategies. Image: BofA ETF Research
U.S. Commercial Banks and Savings Institutions Interest Income from Earnings Assets vs. U.S. Fed Funds Rate Does it really make sense to keep raising interest rates if U.S. commercial banks can’t survive with the current federal funds rate? Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Household Debt-to-Income Ratios U.S. households have improved their balance sheets in the past decade. Image: Deutsche Bank
Earnings – S&P 500 Net Income Growth and Fed Funds Rate Fed rate hikes suggest an earnings recession. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Consensus Net Income – S&P 500 vs. S&P 500 ex Energy Have U.S. equities fully priced in the risk of recession? Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Earnings – S&P 500 Trailing 12-Month Net Income Growth vs. Fed Funds Rate Deviation from Trend (Leading Indicator) The change in fed funds rate suggests an earnings recession. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Housing Bubbles – Real House Prices vs. House Prices / Disposable Income Is an housing crash on the horizon? Image: MBR Partners
Flows – Fixed-Income Assets Flows into Treasury-Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) funds have been very strong, as they offer investors protection against rising inflation. Image: BofA Global Research
Oil Price Relative to U.S. Personal Disposable Income The impact of the recent oil surge, adjusted for U.S. personal incomes, is much smaller than that of previous oil shocks. Image: Alpine Macro