MOVE Index vs. S&P 500 The S&P 500 has been moving in the opposite direction of rate volatility. Stocks remain sensitive to swings in rates, but if volatility cools and the outlook becomes more predictable, stocks may calm down even if rates stay high. Image: The Daily Chartbook
Days per Year the S&P 500 Price and Breadth Moved in Opposite Directions Years like this, when the S&P 500 holds firm while breadth lags, have tended to come with a higher risk of volatility and pullbacks, even if they rarely offer precise timing. Image: Real Investment Advice
MOVE Index vs. U.S. 10-Year Note Unlike in 2022, U.S. 10-year yields are higher year to date, but rate volatility has stayed contained. Implied and realized volatility remain compressed even as inflation risks and Fed uncertainty linger. Image: Deutsche Bank
Average Global Equities Returns Depending on Absolute Moves in U.S. 10-Year Yieldss Big moves in bond yields rarely go unnoticed by equities. A rapid rise in yields can act as a red flag for stocks, as investors push for greater compensation to stay exposed. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Bond Volatility – MOVE Index With the MOVE index trending lower, U.S. rate volatility has cooled, which brings a dose of relief to bond desks and, by extension, the economy. It’s definitely a welcome breather for the markets. Image: The Daily Shot
MOVE, VIX and FX Volatility The “Goldilocks summer” of market calm is essentially over, as mounting concerns about the U.S. economy awaken markets from their seasonal slumber. Image: Bloomberg
MOVE Index and Discretionary Investors Equity Positioning Over the past few years, discretionary positioning has exhibited a strong inverse correlation with rates volatility, though this pattern can fluctuate based on market conditions and investor behavior. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Returns After Quickest Moves into a Correction The S&P 500 experienced one of its fastest 10% corrections from an all-time high within a month. Since 1950, it has always been higher 3 and 6 months later, with a median 6-month return of 16.8%, giving bulls reason to smile. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance After Five Consecutive Days of a 1% Daily Move and All Above the 200-Day MA Historically, when the S&P 500 has experienced five consecutive days of 1% moves while remaining above its 200-day MA, it has performed well over the following six months, averaging an 11.0% gain and rising 91.7% of the…
MOVE – U.S. Treasury Volatility Index The MOVE index, which measures implied volatility in U.S. Treasury options, has surged to its highest level since January 2024, signaling potential shifts in broader financial markets. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Stocks – Earnings Day Moves Last quarter set a 15-year record for earnings day volatility, with 12% of S&P 500 stocks experiencing price movements greater than 10%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research