Bubbles and Bitcoin – Trough to Peak Price Moves (%) Within 3 Years of the Highs for Selected Assets Through History Bitcoin is around half of the tulip bubble in 1637. Image: Deutsche Bank Click the Image to Enlarge
% Move in EUR/USD After U.S. Presidential Inaugurations EUR/USD has tended to decline in the weeks following U.S. presidential inaugurations since 1974. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Risk Appetite Indicator Level – Drawdowns and Up Moves Time to reduce risk? When the Risk Appetite Indicator (RAI) level is above 1, near-term returns tend to be lower on average, with larger drawdowns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Volatility Divergence – VIX and MOVE The volatility divergence between VIX and MOVE remains elevated. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
S&P 500 Monthly Performance Based on U.S. 10-Year Rates Move Since 1998 Historically, large increases of real rates tend to weigh on equities. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
MOVE – U.S. Treasury Volatility Index The U.S. Treasury volatility index fell to a historic trough. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Market-Implied One-Day Move After U.S. Election Day The current expected move after Election Day is 2.8%, down from 3.2% in August. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Stocks – Average Earnings Day Moves Earnings day moves are generally higher in the fourth quarter. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Volatility – Nasdaq 3-Day Sigma Move Is the selloff over for now? Image: BofA Global Research
Seasonality – Average Bp Move in 10-Year U.S. Treasury Bond Yields Will August be a positive month for U.S. Treasury bonds this year? Image: Morgan Stanley Research