MOVE Index vs. S&P 500 The S&P 500 has been moving opposite to rate volatility. Stocks remain sensitive to rate swings, but as clarity returns, investors recalibrate and the market calms. It’s all about uncertainty, take that away and things settle fast. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Bond Volatility – MOVE Index With the MOVE index trending lower, U.S. rate volatility has cooled, which brings a dose of relief to bond desks and, by extension, the economy. It’s definitely a welcome breather for the markets. Image: The Daily Shot
MOVE, VIX and FX Volatility The “Goldilocks summer” of market calm is essentially over, as mounting concerns about the U.S. economy awaken markets from their seasonal slumber. Image: Bloomberg
MOVE Index and Discretionary Investors Equity Positioning Over the past few years, discretionary positioning has exhibited a strong inverse correlation with rates volatility, though this pattern can fluctuate based on market conditions and investor behavior. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Returns After Quickest Moves into a Correction The S&P 500 experienced one of its fastest 10% corrections from an all-time high within a month. Since 1950, it has always been higher 3 and 6 months later, with a median 6-month return of 16.8%, giving bulls reason to smile. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance After Five Consecutive Days of a 1% Daily Move and All Above the 200-Day MA Historically, when the S&P 500 has experienced five consecutive days of 1% moves while remaining above its 200-day MA, it has performed well over the following six months, averaging an 11.0% gain and rising 91.7% of the…
MOVE – U.S. Treasury Volatility Index The MOVE index, which measures implied volatility in U.S. Treasury options, has surged to its highest level since January 2024, signaling potential shifts in broader financial markets. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Stocks – Earnings Day Moves Last quarter set a 15-year record for earnings day volatility, with 12% of S&P 500 stocks experiencing price movements greater than 10%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 1-Day Move to CPI The U.S. equity market’s response to CPI data is becoming less pronounced, influenced by shifting investor sentiment about interest rates and overall economic conditions. Image: BofA Global Research
MOVE Index vs. S&P 500 Equal Weighted Assuming bond volatility continues to decline, will the S&P 500 equal weighted index continue to rise? Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Volatility Divergence – VIX vs. MOVE The divergence between VIX and MOVE presents unique challenges and opportunities for market participants, reflecting different expectations and perceptions of risk in the equity and bond markets. Image: BofA Global Research