MOVE Index and Discretionary Investors Equity Positioning Discretionary investors equity positioning has remained inversely correlated with U.S. rates volatility. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Bond Volatility – MOVE Index The MOVE index, indicating the implied volatility of U.S. Treasury options, has recently reached its highest level since 2023, reflecting heightened uncertainty and broader financial instability. Image: The Daily Shot
S&P 500 Returns After Quickest Moves into a Correction The S&P 500 experienced one of its fastest 10% corrections from an all-time high within a month. Since 1950, it has always been higher 3 and 6 months later, with a median 6-month return of 16.8%, giving bulls reason to smile. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance After Five Consecutive Days of a 1% Daily Move and All Above the 200-Day MA Historically, when the S&P 500 has experienced five consecutive days of 1% moves while remaining above its 200-day MA, it has performed well over the following six months, averaging an 11.0% gain and rising 91.7% of the…
One-Day Move in U.S. Stocks that Beat on 4Q EPS in Excess of S&P 500 The market’s positive response to earnings beats, despite uncertainties surrounding Trump’s policies and the Fed’s direction, suggests that strong corporate performance is outweighing other factors in driving investor sentiment. Image: Bloomberg
MOVE – U.S. Treasury Volatility Index The MOVE index, which measures implied volatility in U.S. Treasury options, has surged to its highest level since January 2024, signaling potential shifts in broader financial markets. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Stocks – Earnings Day Moves Last quarter set a 15-year record for earnings day volatility, with 12% of S&P 500 stocks experiencing price movements greater than 10%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 1-Day Move to CPI The U.S. equity market’s response to CPI data is becoming less pronounced, influenced by shifting investor sentiment about interest rates and overall economic conditions. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 Equal Weighted vs. MOVE Index Assuming bond volatility continues to decline, will the S&P 500 equal weighted index continue to rise? Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Volatility Divergence – VIX vs. MOVE The divergence between VIX and MOVE presents unique challenges and opportunities for market participants, reflecting different expectations and perceptions of risk in the equity and bond markets. Image: BofA Global Research
Average U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Move Before and After the Last Fed Hike in the Cycle Historically, after the last Fed rate hike, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have tended to trend lower on average. Image: Deutsche Bank