Average Movements in 2s10s Slope Around U.S. Recessions

Average Movements in 2s10s Slope Around U.S. Recessions Historically, when the U.S. 2s10s yield curve has been inverted by more than -100bps, a U.S. recession is currently happening or will happen within 8 months. Is it different this time? Image: Deutsche Bank

Volatility – MOVE Index

Volatility – MOVE Index U.S. Treasury bond market volatility is still elevated, despite some improvement. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

Median S&P 500 Index Move Around Last Fed Hike

Median S&P 500 Index Move Around Last Fed Hike Historically, the S&P 500 Index’s median return exceeds 5% about 22 weeks after the final Fed hike. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

MOVE Index vs. U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve

MOVE Index vs. U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Should investors expect a steeper yield curve and more fixed-income volatility? Image: Variant Perception Research

Markets – U.S. Rate Moves

Markets – U.S. Rate Moves Over the recent months, U.S. rate moves have generally been “healthy”. Image: BofA Global Research