Capex to Operating Cash Flow for U.S. and China Hyperscalers U.S. hyperscalers are on track to spend more than their operating cash flow in 2026, 2027 and 2028. The market’s question has shifted from “Can they fund it?” to “Will AI ever pay them back?” Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Realized and Consensus Hyperscaler Free Cash Flow Hyperscaler free cash flow is expected to remain negative through 2027 as AI spending accelerates, before recovering in 2028. For now, that cash burn is the price of keeping up in the AI race. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Equities, Cash and Real Estate as % of U.S. Household Net Financial Wealth Stocks have overtaken real estate as the bigger store of household wealth in the U.S., and that has become a meaningful tailwind for spending. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Semiconductor Earnings vs. Hyperscaler Free Cash Flows Semiconductor earnings are riding the AI capex wave, but hyperscaler free cash flow is taking a hit as spending on chips, data centers, and networking accelerates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Hyperscaler Capex, Operating Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow Big Tech’s five hyperscalers are now investing beyond their operating cash flow. The narrative has flipped from “can they afford it?” to whether the AI buildout can justify the bill. Image: Deutsche Bank
Cash Held by U.S. Households Equity inflows are drawing support from the cash buffers U.S. households amassed during the pandemic, with a large share of those savings yet to be deployed. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Capex as % of Cash Flow from Operations All signs point to hyperscalers reinvesting nearly all operating cash flow into capex, a tailwind for infrastructure suppliers but a potential headwind for equity returns if free cash flow fails to recover. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Hyperscaler Year/Year Cash Spending Growth Hyperscalers are ramping up AI spending, leaving less capacity for buybacks and dividends. The trade-off is weaker near-term payouts in exchange for longer-term upside. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
YoY Growth in S&P 500 Cash Use S&P 500 companies are shifting cash to capex, led by AI, while buybacks stall. The result may be weaker EPS support and a thinner cushion for stock prices. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Performance vs. S&P 500 by Uses of Cash U.S. companies that return the most cash to shareholders through dividends and buybacks have outperformed the S&P 500 since 1992. The outperformance usually reflects stronger fundamentals and disciplined capital allocation. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Cash Allocation by Non-Bank Investors Globally Non‑bank global investors are rotating out of stocks and bonds and into cash as the Middle East conflict‑related energy shock raises inflation fears and the risk of higher interest rates. Image: J.P. Morgan