AAII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bearish Readings While AAII U.S. investor pessimism has eased to a 20-week low, bearish sentiment remains modestly elevated relative to historical averages, indicating that caution lingers even as market conditions improve. Image: The Daily Shot
S&P 500 Performance After at Least 15 Weeks of AAII Bears over Bulls Ends A streak of 15 consecutive weeks with more bears than bulls in the AAII survey is rare—only four other periods have lasted this long. In each case, the S&P 500 was higher 12 months later, with an average gain of 27.5%.…
Combined AAII & II Sentiment The current elevated bearish sentiment in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) and Investors Intelligence (II) surveys is still signaling a potential bullish opportunity for contrarian investors. Image: Topdown Charts
AAII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bearish Readings > 50 The current AAII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bearish reading of 58.9% marks the 7th consecutive week above 50%, aligning with the record streak observed in October 1990, which coincided with a major market low. Image: The Daily Shot
S&P 500 Performance After AAII Bears Above 50% Five Straight Weeks Historically, when bearish sentiment in the AAII poll surpasses 50% for five straight weeks, U.S. stocks have shown an average return of 21% over the next 12 months, with positive returns occurring 100% of the time since 1990. Image: Carson Investment Research
AAII – U.S. Retail Investors Allocation to Stocks, Bonds and Cash High equity allocations and low cash positions don’t always mean a market reversal is near. However, they suggest that much of the market’s potential gains may already be priced in, as investors have heavily committed to equities. Image: Real Investment Advice
AAII Investor Sentiment Bull Minus Bear Spread The AAII investor sentiment bull minus bear spread, which is in the 91th percentile, raises legitimate concerns that the market may be overheating. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Correlation Between AAII Bull-Bear Spread and S&P 500 Returns The AAII bull-bear spread may not necessarily be a reliable predictor of future S&P 500 returns. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
AAII Total Stock Allocation vs. FMS Net % Overwieght Equities Asset allocators are cautious and still underweight equities. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
AAII Bullish Sentiment Individual investor sentiment must improve significantly if the current uptrend in U.S. stock prices is more than just a typical bear market rally. Image: BofA Global Research
Sentiment – 52-Week S&P 500 Forward Return and AAII Survey Bulls Minus Bears Historically, when investor sentiment is very bearish, there is often a bounce in the stock market. Image: Richardson Wealth