S&P 500 Performance After AAII Bears > 55% The current economic and market conditions differ significantly from those of the GFC. When bearish sentiment in the AAII pol reaches extreme levels, such as above 55%, it can be seen as a contrarian bullish signal for U.S. stocks. Image: Carson Investment Research
AAII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bull – Bear Spread The latest AAII U.S. investor sentiment bull-bear spread continues to indicate a pessimistic outlook among individual investors, suggesting ongoing caution regarding the stock market’s short-term performance. Image: The Daily Shot
AAII – U.S. Retail Investors Allocation to Stocks, Bonds and Cash High equity allocations and low cash positions don’t always mean a market reversal is near. However, they suggest that much of the market’s potential gains may already be priced in, as investors have heavily committed to equities. Image: Real Investment Advice
Combined AAII & II Sentiment Contrarian investors might view the current bearish sentiment from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) and Investors Intelligence (II) surveys as a potential bullish signal. Image: Topdown Charts
AAII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bearish Readings The AAII Bearish Sentiment continues to be below its historical average, suggesting that AAII investors hold an optimistic view of the short-term stock market outlook. Image: The Daily Shot
AAII Investor Sentiment Bull Minus Bear Spread The AAII investor sentiment bull minus bear spread, which is in the 91th percentile, raises legitimate concerns that the market may be overheating. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Correlation Between AAII Bull-Bear Spread and S&P 500 Returns The AAII bull-bear spread may not necessarily be a reliable predictor of future S&P 500 returns. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
AAII Investor Sentiment: % Bullish – % Bearish U.S. retail investors are feeling less optimistic. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
AAII Total Stock Allocation vs. FMS Net % Overwieght Equities Asset allocators are cautious and still underweight equities. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
AAII Bullish Sentiment Individual investor sentiment must improve significantly if the current uptrend in U.S. stock prices is more than just a typical bear market rally. Image: BofA Global Research
Sentiment – 52-Week S&P 500 Forward Return and AAII Survey Bulls Minus Bears Historically, when investor sentiment is very bearish, there is often a bounce in the stock market. Image: Richardson Wealth