S&P 500 Performance After AAII Bears Above 50% Five Straight Weeks Historically, when bearish sentiment in the AAII poll surpasses 50% for five straight weeks, U.S. stocks have shown an average return of 21% over the next 12 months, with positive returns occurring 100% of the time since 1990. Image: Carson Investment Research
AAII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bull – Bear Spread The latest AAII U.S. investor sentiment bull-bear spread shows an improvement compared to the previous week. While individual investors remain pessimistic, this reflects a partial recovery. Image: The Daily Shot
Combined AAII & II Sentiment For contrarian investors, the current bearish sentiment indicated from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) and Investors Intelligence (II) surveys could signal a potential bullish opportunity. Image: Topdown Charts
AAII – U.S. Retail Investors Allocation to Stocks, Bonds and Cash High equity allocations and low cash positions don’t always mean a market reversal is near. However, they suggest that much of the market’s potential gains may already be priced in, as investors have heavily committed to equities. Image: Real Investment Advice
AAII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bearish Readings The AAII Bearish Sentiment continues to be below its historical average, suggesting that AAII investors hold an optimistic view of the short-term stock market outlook. Image: The Daily Shot
AAII Investor Sentiment Bull Minus Bear Spread The AAII investor sentiment bull minus bear spread, which is in the 91th percentile, raises legitimate concerns that the market may be overheating. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Correlation Between AAII Bull-Bear Spread and S&P 500 Returns The AAII bull-bear spread may not necessarily be a reliable predictor of future S&P 500 returns. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
AAII Total Stock Allocation vs. FMS Net % Overwieght Equities Asset allocators are cautious and still underweight equities. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
AAII Bullish Sentiment Individual investor sentiment must improve significantly if the current uptrend in U.S. stock prices is more than just a typical bear market rally. Image: BofA Global Research
Sentiment – 52-Week S&P 500 Forward Return and AAII Survey Bulls Minus Bears Historically, when investor sentiment is very bearish, there is often a bounce in the stock market. Image: Richardson Wealth
AAII Survey – Average S&P 500 Returns After % of Bullish Investors Dropped Below 20% The AAII Bullish Sentiment is below 20%, which is contrarian bullish. Image: Truist