U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Core CPI (Core Inflation Leading Indicator) US annual core CPI in November stayed unchanged at 2.3%. This chart suggests that the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index leads U.S. Core CPI by 24 months. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index” and “U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over…
U.S. Core CPI and JOLTS Job Openings (Leading Indicator) This chart suggests that JOLTS job openings leads U.S. core cpi by 12 months. Image: BCA Research
Inflation – U.S. Core CPI Goods and Core CPI Services 20 years of almost no inflation in goods. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months (Leading Indicator) This chart suggests that M2 velocity year-over-year leads U.S. core CPI by 21 months (R² = 0.61 since 1996). It has been quite accurate for more than 20 years. Click the Image to Enlarge
U.S. Core Inflation vs. Home Prices (Leading Indicator) Home prices suggest that core CPI seems likely to fall further. Image: Scotiabank Economics
Why Is Core Inflation So Low Compared To Previous Business Cycles? The Consumer Price Index Less Food & Energy (Core CPI) is very low compared to previous business cycles in the US, for several reasons: – not fast-rising money supply – globalization: inflation is a global phenomenon – lack of wage acceleration – increase in…
Ranking Developed Economies by Key Growth Metrics Currently, the United States is ranked numer one in real GDP, core CPI and consumer confidence. Image: Arbor Research & Trading