Inflation – U.S. Core PCE and Core CPI Goldman Sachs’ forecast of a continuous decline in U.S. core PCE and core CPI suggests a potential slowdown in inflationary pressures, which could have significant implications for the overall economic outlook. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Inflation – Core PCE and Core CPI Inflation is trending downward towards the Fed’s 2% target, a crucial aspect of its monetary policy aimed at maintaining price stability and anchoring inflation expectations at a moderate level. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. Core CPI Inflation The June CPI report suggests the price trend is aligning with the Federal Reserve’s goals, leading Goldman Sachs analysts to anticipate the Fed’s first rate cut in September. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Core CPI Inflation Morgan Stanley expects U.S. core CPI inflation to cool off in April to 0.29% month-on-month, which should give the Fed some breathing room in terms of their monetary policy decisions. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Inflation – Potential Paths for U.S. Core CPI If the Fed cuts rates in June, U.S. core CPI is expected to exceed the Fed’s 2% inflation target, which could pose challenges for the central bank in maintaining price stability. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Core CPI vs. Unemployment Rate When Fed First Cut Rates It is rare for the Fed to cut rates when core CPI exceeds the unemployment rate, signaling the central bank’s concern about potential inflationary pressures and its emphasis on maintaining price stability. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Core CPI Minus Unemployement Rate % vs. Fed Funds Rate The Fed rarely cuts rates when core CPI exceeds the unemployment rate, reflecting the central bank’s concern about potential inflationary pressures in the economy and its emphasis on price stability. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Inflation – U.S. Core CPI Goldman Sachs forecasts that U.S. core CPI will be 3.0% in December 2024. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Small Cap Stocks – Annual Change in Core CPI vs. Russell 2000 Relative to S&P 500 Should investors overweight U.S. small-cap stocks in their portfolio? Image: Alpine Macro
Inflation – Fed Funds vs. U.S. Core CPI Will the Fed pivot in 2023 if core CPI is significantly lower? Image: Morgan Stanley Research