U.S. Core CPI Inflation U.S. inflation is moderating, aided by a slowing economy and a weaker labor market. However, the full impact of tariffs is expected to materialize in the coming months, potentially reversing the current disinflationary trend. Image: TS Lombard
U.S. Core CPI and Headline Inflation Goldman Sachs forecasts U.S. core CPI inflation to be 2.8% year-over-year by the end of 2025, factoring in the impact of tariffs. Without tariffs, their projection for core CPI inflation would be 2.3% by year-end. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Headline and Core CPI Inflation The latest inflation data for October 2024 indicates that U.S. inflation has remained firm, showing a slight uptick rather than continuing its irregular descent, suggesting that the Fed’s battle against inflation is not yet over. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Core CPI Inflation In September, U.S. core CPI inflation showed a modest increase of 0.312% month-over-month, indicating that inflation pressures are not significantly escalating. Image: Nomura
Inflation – U.S. Core PCE and Core CPI Goldman Sachs’ forecast of a continuous decline in U.S. core PCE and core CPI suggests a potential slowdown in inflationary pressures, which could have significant implications for the overall economic outlook. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Inflation – Core PCE and Core CPI Inflation is trending downward towards the Fed’s 2% target, a crucial aspect of its monetary policy aimed at maintaining price stability and anchoring inflation expectations at a moderate level. Image: BofA Global Research
Inflation – Potential Paths for U.S. Core CPI If the Fed cuts rates in June, U.S. core CPI is expected to exceed the Fed’s 2% inflation target, which could pose challenges for the central bank in maintaining price stability. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Core CPI vs. Unemployment Rate When Fed First Cut Rates It is rare for the Fed to cut rates when core CPI exceeds the unemployment rate, signaling the central bank’s concern about potential inflationary pressures and its emphasis on maintaining price stability. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Core CPI Minus Unemployement Rate % vs. Fed Funds Rate The Fed rarely cuts rates when core CPI exceeds the unemployment rate, reflecting the central bank’s concern about potential inflationary pressures in the economy and its emphasis on price stability. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Inflation – U.S. Core CPI Goldman Sachs forecasts that U.S. core CPI will be 3.0% in December 2024. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Small Cap Stocks – Annual Change in Core CPI vs. Russell 2000 Relative to S&P 500 Should investors overweight U.S. small-cap stocks in their portfolio? Image: Alpine Macro