S&P 500 Performance During Government Shutdowns While government shutdowns can create short-term volatility, historical data shows that the S&P 500 has gained an average of 12.7% in the 12 months after such events, with positive returns occurring 86.4% of the time. Image: Carson Investment Research
Debt-to-GDP and 10-Year Government Bond Yield While it might seem intuitive that higher debt burdens would lead to higher yields due to increased risk, this relationship has not held true in practice. Yields are influenced by multiple economic factors, not just debt levels. Image: BCA Research
Tariffs and U.S. Government Revenues Tariffs played a crucial role in the early industrialization of the United States, but their effectiveness in today’s global economy are potentially detrimental as they act as an economic drag, hurting more industries than they help. Image: Deutsche Bank
China – Nominal GDP Growth vs. 10-Year Government Bond Yield The persistent drop in bond yields is often seen as a sign of increasing investor caution regarding economic growth, which does not bode well for China’s nominal GDP growth moving forward. Image: Alpine Macro
U.S. Long Term Government Bonds (+15y) Rolling 10-Year Annualized Returns Long-dated U.S. Treasury 10-year returns are currently nearing 62-year lows, raising questions about the potential for better returns in the future. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Ownership of Developed Markets Government Debt Most U.S. government debt is owned domestically, while foreign investors hold a smaller but still significant portion. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Government Spending U.S. government spending fell by 6% year-over-year, marking a notable shift. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Government Total Outlays U.S. federal government spending has risen sharply since the 2020s, sparking debates about fiscal responsibility and the long-term implications for the U.S. economy. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Global Stocks vs. Government Bonds In a potential shift from a “no” to a “hard” landing scenario, government bonds may outperform due to increased risk aversion, interest rate cuts, lower inflation expectations, and their historical performance during economic downturns. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. 30-Year Government Bond Returns The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond is currently experiencing a challenging period in terms of its annual return, as it is on track for the 3rd worst annual return since 1919. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Coporate vs. Government Bond Returns Since March 2020, U.S. corporate bonds have significantly outperformed government bonds. Will this trend continue in the coming months? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy