U.S. Elections – Median S&P 500 12-Month Return Based on Control of U.S. Government As the chart suggests, a divided government is best for the U.S. stock market. Image: Goldman Sachs
U.S. 10-Year Government Bond Total Return vs. Price of Lumber The surge in lumber prices suggests downside risk for bond prices. Image: BCA Research
10-Year U.S. Government Yield The 10-year U.S. government yield is at a 234-year low. Image: Deutsche Bank
Percent of Advanced Economy Government Bonds Outstanding by Yield As the chart shows, there is currently a large percentage of government bonds from advanced economies with yields below 1%. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
Central Bank Ownership of Domestic Government Debt This chart shows the rise of central banks as holders of sovereign debt, pushing sovereign yields to historically low levels. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
S&P 500 at 3000 and U.S. Government Spending as % of GDP According to BofA, maximum government spending, maximum liquidity and the current fiscal stimulus explain why the S&P 500 is at 3,000. Image: BofA Research Investment Committee
U.S. Federal Government Debt Held by the Public in % of GDP The U.S. federal government debt is on track to balloon to World War II levels. Image: CommerzBank Research
U.S. Unemployment Rate and U.S. Federal Government Budget Deficit This chart shows the unprecedented divergence between the U.S. unemployment rate and the U.S. federal government budget deficit. Image: Alpine Macro
Fed Funds Rate Less Core PCE and Real U.S. 10-Year Government Bond Yields Chart suggesting that monetary policy is becoming too tight. Image: Danske Research
Value vs. Growth and U.S. 30-Year Government Bond Yield The outperformance of U.S. growth stocks relative to U.S. value stocks suggests lower bond yields ahead. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy