U.S. Unemployment Rate and U.S. Federal Government Budget Deficit This chart shows the unprecedented divergence between the U.S. unemployment rate and the U.S. federal government budget deficit. Image: Alpine Macro
Fed Funds Rate Less Core PCE and Real U.S. 10-Year Government Bond Yields Chart suggesting that monetary policy is becoming too tight. Image: Danske Research
Value vs. Growth and U.S. 30-Year Government Bond Yield The outperformance of U.S. growth stocks relative to U.S. value stocks suggests lower bond yields ahead. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Equity Fund Flows Cycle, Credit and Government Bond Chart suggesting that the equity fund flows cycle has entered its last phase. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Gross Government Debt to GDP U.S. government debt is expected to grow and could increase the likelihood of a fiscal crisis in the future. Image: Reuters
Median S&P 500 12-Month Returns Based on Control of U.S. Government A unified government under the Democrats could represent a major risk for the S&P 500 in 2020. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global Supply of Safe Assets by Country – Shortage of Government Bonds The global shortage of government bonds is going to get worse and could keep yields low or negative. Image: Financial Times
U.S. Tariff Revenue as a Percentage of Federal Government Receipts Since 1880 As a percentage of federal revenue, tariff receipts are rising to the highest in 70 years, but well below the levels observed throughout the 19th century. Image: Macrobond
Cumulative Fund Flows: Global Equities and Global Government & Corporate Bonds $339 billion in inflows to bond funds globally, and $208 billion in outflows from global equity funds in 2019, as investors fear a global recession is on the horizon. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch
Global Government Debt Global government debt has ballooned since the global financial crisis, reaching its highest level in peacetime. Image: Financial Times