Seasonality – S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2026 The S&P 500 Cycle Composite points to a bullish but choppy 2026. U.S. stocks are now heading into their weakest seasonal stretch, which typically runs from mid-August to early October. Image: Ned Davis Research
Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns August and September have rarely been kind to U.S. stocks, posting some of the weakest average returns of the year. With July, normally a strong month, now barely negative, do the odds look different this time? Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Quarterly EPS Seasonally Adjusted S&P 500 earnings are running 14% above their nine-decade trend line. Any pullback toward the mean would make today’s rich valuations look fragile fast. Image: Deutsche Bank
VIX Seasonality The market’s summer calm does not always last. Volatility often picks up from late July into the autumn, setting the stage for a bumpier ride in U.S. stocks. Image: Topdown Charts
Seasonality – Monthly Return Stats for the S&P 500 July has been a friendly month for U.S. stocks, with average returns of 0.8% going back to 1964. If that seasonal pattern holds, bulls could have reason to smile. Image: Topdown Charts
VIX and S&P 500 Seasonality The VIX and the S&P 500 usually move in opposite directions. As volatility rises from late July into the autumn months, the period often proves challenging for U.S. stocks. Image: Topdown Charts
Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Returns in June The second half of June has a track record of frustrating equity bulls, with U.S. stocks often drifting lower. The bright spot is that we are now halfway through this typical June swoon. Image: Carson Investment Research
Seasonality – S&P 500 Average Monthly Returns Since 1950 Since 1950, the S&P 500 has returned just 1.7% from May to October, versus more than 7% from November to April. When the market hits May near record highs, that already weak stretch has tended to get weaker. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Seasonal Composite 4 Year Presidential Election Cycle The S&P 500 is following the familiar midterm‑year script, with gains often building into mid‑April before the market starts to lose momentum as the election comes into view. That midterm effect shows up almost every cycle. Image: Nautilus Research
S&P 500 – Seasonality During Bull vs. Bear Markets (Midterm Election Years Only) Bull markets don’t offer immunity. U.S. midterm election years tend to bring choppier trading and elevated volatility for the S&P 500 until late in the year. Image: Topdown Charts
S&P 500 Seasonality While seasonality in the S&P 500 always tells a story, midterm years rank as the weakest in the four-year presidential cycle but still deliver positive returns more often than not. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research