S&P 500 Monthly Returns and Percentage of Time Up – Presidential Cycle Year 4 Seasonality serves as a valuable tool for assessing probabilities in the stock market. According to historical data, U.S. stocks often demonstrate notable strength during the summer months of election years. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. GDP Growth BofA forecasts a robust U.S. GDP growth of 2.3% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in Q2 2024, reflecting the bank’s confidence in the resilience of the American economy. Image: BofA Global Research
Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns Seasonality should be viewed as a valuable tool rather than a crystal ball for predicting future market movements. Historical patterns indicate that the U.S. stock market has shown strength in the first half of July. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Average S&P 500 Returns by the First and Second Half of the Month Seasonality is a useful statistical tool, but not a crystal ball for predicting future market movements. Past patterns indicate that the U.S. stock market has often demonstrated strength in the first half of July. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 Average 10-Day Returns Historically, U.S. stocks are entering a seasonally bullish period, associated with positive performance and upward momentum. Image: Carson Investment Research
Sentiment – 25-Day U.S. Put/Call Ratio Bearish seasonality risk is increasing, as the 25-day put/call ratio is trading at relatively low levels. Image: BofA
S&P 500 Average Return for Each Day This spreadsheet shows the S&P 500 average return for each day from 1950 to 2018. “History never repeats itself but it rhymes” –Mark Twain. October 28 has been historically the best day of the year for the S&P 500. You may also like “S&P 500 vs. Its Seasonal Pattern.” Image: Ryan…