Leon Cooperman: Bull Market Cycles Don’t End at Fair Valuation, They Ended at Overvaluation “There is still more room for the market to run. We have a slowdown but not a recession and the market is ok.” Leon Cooperman (Omega Advisors founder) is a great value investor. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xz6ihkuW1AM
Valuation – Shiller Cyclically Adjusted Price/Earnings Ratio U.S. equity valuations have benefited from structural tailwinds but have recently overshot, leading to concerns about overvaluation, particularly in large-cap and growth stocks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Valuation Metrics Current valuation metrics suggest the S&P 500 is experiencing high valuations, with multiple indicators pointing to potential overvaluation, warranting caution among investors. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Valuation – S&P 500 Long-Term P/E Ratio Valuation, particularly in the context of the S&P 500’s long-term P/E ratio, is a significant consideration for investors. The high current ratio suggests potential overvaluation. Image: The Daily Shot
S&P 500 Valuation – Real Market Capitalization to Real GDP Ratio The inflation-adjusted market capitalization to GDP ratio is a valuable tool to evaluate the U.S. stock market’s valuation. The high current ratio implies a potential overvaluation. Image: Real Investment Advice
Valuation – U.S. Equity Market Capitalization to GDP The U.S. equity market cap to GDP ratio is near an all-time high at approximately 187%, suggesting a significant overvaluation of the U.S. stock market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 to M2 Ratio The rising S&P 500 to M2 ratio suggests a potential overvaluation in the U.S. stock market. This trend implies greater demand for stocks compared to the supply of money, worrying investors and analysts. Image: Topdown Charts
Valuation – S&P 500 Trailing 4Q P/E Bullish investors stay long until the trailing PE ratio of the S&P 500 exceeds 25x, signaling potential overvaluation and higher risk, prompting reassessment and defensive strategy shift. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Valuation – S&P 500 P/E to VIX Ratio When the S&P 500 valuation-to-volatility ratio is high, it suggests investors pay more for perceived market safety, indicating potential overvaluation and increased market vulnerability to downturns. Image: Real Investment Advice
Secular Bull Markets vs. Secular Bear Markets – S&P 500 / Gold Despite occasional market fluctuations and concerns about overvaluation, the S&P 500 is still in a secular bull market. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Valuation – Global GDP vs. Global Market Capitalization Is the global market capitalization to global GDP a sign of global equity overvaluation? Image: Richardson Wealth