Annual U.S. Payroll Employment Growth in the Month Before Each Post-War Recession The recent slowdown in U.S. job creation is concerning, as it nears levels typically seen before economic downturns. Image: Paulsen Perspectives
U.S. Unemployment Rate The improving underlying trends in U.S. employment data, support the view that the Fed is likely to maintain its current policy stance throughout 2025, barring significant changes in economic conditions. Image: Deutsche Bank
Sahm Rule Recession Indicator – U.S. Unemployment Rate The recent dip in the Sahm Rule indicator below the 0.5 mark is encouraging, as it indicates that a U.S. recession is no longer likely. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Labor Market – Unemployment Rate and Consumer Confidence Survey: Jobs “Plentiful” Minus Jobs “Hard to Get” Shifts in consumer perceptions regarding job availability suggest notable changes that could potentially lead to a rise in the U.S. unemployment rate. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. Unemployment Rate The U.S. “job plentiful” index has experienced a significant decline, reaching its lowest level since 2017, which could signal broader economic challenges ahead. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Unemployment Rate Goldman Sachs forecasts a series of interest rate cuts through mid-2025 while maintaining a steady unemployment rate due to ongoing job growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Unemployment Rate Technical analysis suggests an upside risk to the U.S. unemployment rate in the second half of 2024, indicating potential challenges in sustaining job growth and stability in the labor market. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. Presidential Approval Rating vs. Unemployment Rate Even though the labor market is solid and the economy is growing, President Biden’s approval rating remains low, largely due to public unease over high inflation. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Average Annualized 1-Month Real Total S&P 500 Return and U.S. Unemployment Rate While a low U.S. unemployment rate is generally a positive indicator for the economy, very low unemployment rates can be seen as a negative for U.S. stocks. Image: BCA Research
U.S. Unemployment Rate Forecast According to Deutsche Bank, a mild recession in the United States may result in a modestly higher unemployment rate than what is anticipated by both consensus and the Federal Reserve. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Core CPI vs. Unemployment Rate When Fed First Cut Rates It is rare for the Fed to cut rates when core CPI exceeds the unemployment rate, signaling the central bank’s concern about potential inflationary pressures and its emphasis on maintaining price stability. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy