U.S. Unemployment Rate and Recessions The unemployment rate moving above its three-year average has preceded every U.S. recession since 1950. The latest crossover came in June 2024. Since then, no recession has followed, raising questions if this time is different. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Unemployment Rate Softer growth is set to nudge joblessness higher, with U.S. unemployment seen near 4.6% by year‑end and closer to 4.9% under a harsher oil shock scenario. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Unemployment Rate and U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales (Leading Indicator) Sales of U.S. heavy trucks tend to lead the economic cycle. When they drop, unemployment usually starts rising about six months later. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Sahm Rule Recession Indicator – U.S. Unemployment Rate A drop in the Sahm Rule indicator below 0.5 is a positive sign, as it suggests the rule is not currently signaling a U.S. recession—a generally reassuring indicator for economic health. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. NonFarm Employment Annual Growth The YOY job growth rate of 1.1% is a warning sign, as similar levels have coincided with periods just before or during recessions since 1950, supporting the case for the Fed to consider easing monetary policy soon. Image: Paulsen Perspectives
University of Michigan Survey – Consumer Who Expect Higher Unemployment over the Next 12 Months The latest University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers indicate that a significantly higher share of Americans now expect unemployment to rise over the next year, reaching the highest level since 2009. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Annual U.S. Payroll Employment Growth in the Month Before Each Post-War Recession The recent slowdown in U.S. job creation is concerning, as it nears levels typically seen before economic downturns. Image: Paulsen Perspectives
U.S. Labor Market – Unemployment Rate and Consumer Confidence Survey: Jobs “Plentiful” Minus Jobs “Hard to Get” Shifts in consumer perceptions regarding job availability suggest notable changes that could potentially lead to a rise in the U.S. unemployment rate. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. Unemployment Rate Technical analysis suggests an upside risk to the U.S. unemployment rate in the second half of 2024, indicating potential challenges in sustaining job growth and stability in the labor market. Image: BofA Global Research
Average Annualized 1-Month Real Total S&P 500 Return and U.S. Unemployment Rate While a low U.S. unemployment rate is generally a positive indicator for the economy, very low unemployment rates can be seen as a negative for U.S. stocks. Image: BCA Research
U.S. Unemployment Rate Forecast According to Deutsche Bank, a mild recession in the United States may result in a modestly higher unemployment rate than what is anticipated by both consensus and the Federal Reserve. Image: Deutsche Bank