Search Results for: employment

U.S. Nonfarm Employment and NFIB Survey If the trade war continues, it will have serious negative repercussions on the American economy. Picture source: Deutsche Bank Global Research

U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment During this business cycle, America has added over 20 million jobs. Picture source: Leonard Kiefer

Global Equity vs. Bonds and U.S. Unemployment Rate and Recessions The chart shows that the U.S. business cycle drives global asset allocation and suggests a possible U.S. recession in 2020. Picture source: Pictet Asset Management

U.S. Jobless Claims Lead the Unemployment Rate This chart suggests that U.S. jobless claims lead the unemployment rate by 7 months. U.S. initial claims for unemployment fall more than expected to 209,000. Picture source: Oxford Economics

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Leads U.S. Unemployment Rate This interesting chart suggests that the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index leads the U.S. unemployment rate by 7 months (R = 0.95). Picture source: Paolo Cardena

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims and U.S. GDP There is a pretty good correlation between U.S. initial unemployment claims and U.S. GDP. Initial unemployment claims could suggest an acceleration of U.S. GDP in Q3 2019. Click on the Picture to Enlarge

Percentage of U.S. States with Rising Unemployment vs. NY Fed Recession Probability Model The NY Fed recession probability model could suggest an increase in the percentage of U.S. states with rising unemployment over the next 12 months. Picture source: Pictet Asset Management

U.S. Unemployment Rate: Black or African Americans The U.S. unemployment rate of Black or African Americans stands at 6.3%, while the civilian unemployment rate stands at 3.7%, near its lowest level in almost 50 years. You may also like “Homeownership Disparity Deepens.”

U.S. Long-term Unemployment Rate Interesting chart showing that the U.S. long-term unemployment rate is back to its long-run average. Picture source: Ben Casselman

U.S. Unemployment Rate and Wage Growth U.S. unemployment rate at 3.7% and U.S. wage growth at 3.2% in July. U.S. employment growth slows, suggesting the U.S. economy is cooling. Picture source: Jeroen Blokland